Tsis ntev los no, Tuam Tshoj Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Ceg (tom qab no hu ua "Silicon Ceg") tau tshaj tawm cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias lub lim tiam no, cov nqi lag luam polysilicon tseem ruaj khov tag nrho. N-hom rov pov tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 41,700 yuan / ton, N-hom khoom ntawm silicon tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 39,000 yuan / ton, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm P-hom polysilicon 3.40 lab yuan / ton. lab yuan / ton. Nws tau tshaj tawm tias lub lim tiam no, polysilicon tsuas yog lub taub hau ntawm ob peb lub tuam txhab muaj kev lag luam batch, tus so ntawm cov tuam txhab tseem feem ntau siv cov lus txib dhau los, tus tshiab ib leeg kos npe tsawg dua.
Tus nqi, tsuas yog muaj ob peb lub tuam txhab me me uas yog ib feem ntawm qhov kev txiav txim kom nce tus nqi, kev lag luam silicon yuav txiav txim siab, kev nce nqi hauv zos ntawm theem no tsis tau nthuav dav mus rau lwm lub tuam txhab, thiab cov tuam txhab kom ua raws li qhov nyuaj ntawm kev ncav cuag kev pom zoo nce tus nqi tseem xav tau qee lub sijhawm. Tsis tas li ntawd, txij li tam sim no, tag nrho cov tuam txhab polysilicon hauv Suav teb hauv kev tsim khoom yog qhov tseem ceeb hauv kev ua haujlwm txo qis. Nyob rau theem no, tus thawj coj ntawm cov tuam txhab thiab lwm lub tuam txhab hauv kev lag luam pom qhov xwm txheej tshwm sim qhov sib txawv loj dua, xav tias tus nqi lag luam tom ntej yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev ua si stalemate, qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi lag luam tau nce siab.
Raws li kev soj ntsuam ntawm lub koom haum kev lag luam InfoLink, tseem muaj qee qhov kev tos thiab saib hauv kev ua lag luam, thiab qhov kev ua si ntawm kev nce nqi silicon yuav txuas ntxiv mus, thiab peb yuav tsum tau saib xyuas cov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom thiab cov neeg muag khoom nrog rau kev hloov pauv ntawm kev ua lag luam. Lub lim tiam no, qee qhov kev txiav txim ua tiav tau nce nqi me ntsis piv rau yav dhau los, thiab cov kev txwv sab saud thiab qis dua ntawm cov nqi pauv khoom siv silicon tau nce mus rau sab saud, tab sis kev lees txais ntawm cov downstream yog txwv, thiab cov kev lag luam batch tseem tsis tau tshwm sim.
Tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv silicon wafer kuj tau ruaj khov rau lub lim tiam no, ntawm cov no, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm kev lag luam N-hom G10L monocrystalline silicon wafer ruaj khov ntawm 1.18 yuan / daim; tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm kev lag luam N-hom G12R monocrystalline silicon wafer ruaj khov ntawm 1.3 yuan / daim; tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm kev lag luam N-hom G12 monocrystalline silicon wafer ruaj khov ntawm 1.55 yuan / daim.
Los ntawm qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov, sab kev muab khoom, kev tsim khoom ntawm lub Ob Hlis silicon wafer yuav tsum yog li 44GW, piv rau lub Ib Hlis lub nplhaib me ntsis poob qis, ib kab ntawm cov lag luam tau kho qhov pib dua. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv, lub lim tiam no, ob lub tuam txhab ua ntej kom tswj tau qhov pib ntawm 50% thiab 55%, feem, kev koom ua ke ntawm cov tuam txhab kom tswj tau qhov pib ntawm 60% -80%, thiab lwm cov tuam txhab kom tswj tau qhov pib ntawm 40% -80%.
Kev txiav txim siab ceg ntawm kev lag luam silicon, cov tuam txhab wafer tam sim no tseem muaj qee cov khoom muag hauv tes, qhov loj me ntawm tus kheej vim muaj kev hloov kho loj yog qhov tshwm sim ib txwm muaj, kev ua lag luam tag nrho los tswj hwm lub xeev ntawm kev tshem tawm cov khoom muag, yog li cov nqi wafer tsis zoo li yuav hloov pauv ntau.
InfoLink tau hais tias lub lim tiam no, kev tswj tus kheej ntawm kev lag luam tseem txuas ntxiv mus, lub koom haum tau hloov kho tag nrho cov quota thiab kev faib tawm ntawm txhua lub tuam txhab. Raws li kev ua lag luam maj mam raug tus qauv, tus nqi ntawm silicon wafers yuav raug cuam tshuam los ntawm lub zog siv ntawm cov tuam txhab, thiab tus nqi tom ntej yuav tsum tswj hwm kev loj hlob ruaj khov.
Lub roj teeb, lub lim tiam no, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm P-hom M10 cell tseem nyob ntawm 0.33 yuan / W, N-hom M10 cell tus nqi nruab nrab lub lim tiam no tsis hloov pauv ntawm 0.29 yuan / W, N-hom G12R, G12 cell tus nqi nruab nrab tseem hloov pauv ntawm 0.28 yuan / W thiab 0.295 yuan / W.
Saib rau pem hauv ntej rau qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi tom ntej, InfoLink ntseeg tias cov yam tseem ceeb ntawm txoj cai tau maj mam hloov pauv, qhov kev thov thiab kev muab roj teeb raug cuam tshuam los ntawm kev lag luam ntawm cov nqi zog tshiab, kev pom zoo tswj tus kheej ntawm kev lag luam thiab lwm yam, thiab tseem yuav tsum xav txog kev hloov pauv ntawm kev muab thiab kev thov ntawm ntau qhov ntau thiab tsawg, piv txwv li, qhov kev thov luv luv rau G12R-loj roj teeb tseem tsis tau pom qhov nce ntxiv ntawm tus nqi poob qis, qhov loj ntawm tus nqi roj teeb yuav raug txo qis dua. Zuag qhia tag nrho, vim yog kev txiav txim rau lub Peb Hlis, kev teem sijhawm upstream thiab downstream tseem tsis tau meej meej, cov tuam txhab roj teeb tam sim no tos-thiab-saib lub siab muaj zog, tus nqi ntawm lwm qhov txuas rau qhov kev ua si kuj tseem yuav muaj zog dua, qhov ua tau ntawm kev txhim kho ruaj khov ntawm tus nqi roj teeb tom ntej yuav siab dua.
Qhov txhawj xeeb tshaj plaws yog qhov txuas ntawm cov khoom, cov ntaub ntawv InfoLink qhia tau tias kev ua lag luam tsis ntev los no thiab cov haujlwm hauv nruab nrab ruaj khov, cov xaj tshiab tau kos npe tseem tsis tau daws teeb meem tag nrho, cov chaw tsim khoom ib zaug ntxiv tsa qhov kev thov, txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev xa khoom tsis ntev los no yog tiaj tus, qhov nce nqi tseem xav tau sijhawm los ua.
Tshwj xeeb, lub lim tiam no, tus nqi ntawm TOPCon cov khoom xa tuaj yog li ntawm 0.6 yuan / W - 0.70 yuan / W, tus nqi qis yog 0.6 yuan / W - 0.65 yuan / W tus nqi maj mam poob qis. Tus nqi muag khoom seem, 182 PERC ob chav iav module tus nqi yog 0.6 yuan / W - 0.68 yuan / W, HJT module tus nqi nyob nruab nrab ntawm 0.69 yuan / W - 0.85 yuan / W, tus nqi project loj nyob nruab nrab thiab tus nqi qis yog 0.7 yuan / W - 0.8 yuan / W. Rau BC, ib feem ntawm N-TBC, tus nqi tam sim no yog nyob nruab nrab ntawm 0.68 Yuan / W-0.79 Yuan / W.
