Ngokusheshisa kokuguquka kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele, imboni yokugcina amandla yase-US ibonise ukuthambekela okunamandla kwentuthuko, futhi ukuthambekela kwayo kwentuthuko yesikhathi esizayo kubonakala kakhulu kulezi zici ezilandelayo:
Ukwanda okuqhubekayo kwesilinganiso semakethe:Ngokusho kwedatha ye-EIA, kusukela ngoNovemba 2024, amafayela okugcina amandla amakhulu ase-US afinyelele ku-56GW, ukukhula okungu-81% unyaka nonyaka; amafayela e-PV afinyelele ku-108GW, ukukhula okungu-20.6% unyaka nonyaka. Kusukela ngo-2025 kuya ku-2028, umthamo wokugcina amandla ohlanganisiwe e-US kulindeleke ukuthi ube ngu-74.3GW/257.6GWh, lapho izinga lokukhula konyaka lokugcina amandla ezingeni legridi lingu-25%. Kulokhu, isitoreji samandla esikalini segridi kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule ngesilinganiso sonyaka esingu-25%, sengeze u-10.4GW/30.6GWh ekupheleni kuka-2024, kanye nesamba esihlanganisiwe esingu-63.7GW/222GWh esikhathini seminyaka emihlanu kusukela ngo-2024 kuya ku-2028. Ngokuyinhloko ngenxa yobuningi bezindawo zokugcina iphrojekthi, ngaphansi kokulindela ukuncishiswa kwenzalo kanye nokwenyuka kwentela yebhethri, inqubekela phambili yokwakha yamaphrojekthi amakhulu okugcina izimpahla kulindeleke ukuthi isheshise ngo-2025. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isitoreji samandla esisatshalaliswe sizophinde siholele ekuthuthukisweni kwe-12GW ezosetshenziswa phakathi kuka-2024 no-2028, lapho isitoreji samandla ezindlu sasingu-80%, izindleko eziphansi zesitoreji samandla ezibekwe phezu kokwanda kwesithakazelo sabantu kumandla alindile, zizokhulisa imakethe yokugcina amandla yomsebenzisi, isitoreji samandla sezimboni nezentengiselwano sizokhula ngo-294%.
Ukusungula izinto ezintsha kwezobuchwepheshe ukukhuthaza intuthuko yalokhu okulandelayo:I-United States emizamweni yokucwaninga nokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla, amabhethri e-lithium-ion abusa njengamanje, kodwa abacwaningi bahlola ngenkuthalo ubuchwepheshe obusha bokugcina amandla. Njengamabhethri wamanje oketshezi, amabhethri e-solid-state kanye nobunye ubuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla besikhathi eside sebuyindawo eshisayo yocwaningo, amabhethri wamanje oketshezi, umthamo wokugcina amandla, ukushaja nokukhipha impilo yomjikelezo; amabhethri e-solid-state kulindeleke ukuthi axazulule inkinga yokuphepha kwebhethri le-lithium-ion futhi athuthukise ukusebenza. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, obunye ubuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla obusha nabo buyavela, njengokuthi “uhlelo oluthuthukisiwe lwe-geothermal” olusekelwe ekuthuthukisweni kobuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla omshini (isitolo somhlaba) luqede ukuboniswa kwezentengiselwano, okubonisa amahora angu-6 - 10 omthamo wokugcina amandla kanye nezindleko eziphansi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ubuchwepheshe bokuphatha obuhlakaniphile bezinhlelo zokugcina amandla buzoqhubeka nokukhula ukuze kufezwe ukusebenzisana okuphumelelayo negridi futhi kuthuthukiswe ukusebenza kahle kanye nokuzinza kokusebenza.
Ukusekelwa okuqhubekayo kwenqubomgomo:Ukusekelwa kwenqubomgomo okuvela kohulumeni bamazwe kanye nohulumeni base-US kuyimbangela ebalulekile yokuthuthukiswa kwemboni yokugcina amandla. Izinga likahulumeni loMthetho Wokunciphisa Ukwehla Kwamandla (IRA) lizoba amaphrojekthi okugcina amandla azimele kwinqubomgomo yesikweletu sentela (ITC), uma nje umthamo wokugcina amandla ungaphezu kuka-5kWh, ungajabulela ukukhetha kwesikweletu sentela, okukhuthaza kakhulu imakethe yokugcina amandla. Izifundazwe nazo zethule izinqubomgomo, njengeCalifornia enohlelo lokuzikhuthaza lokuzikhiqiza (i-SGIP) ukuze ithathe isabelo semakethe esiphezulu kakhulu emkhakheni wokugcina amandla, futhi ihlela ukwengeza isitoreji esisha sangaphambi kwemitha esingu-15GW eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo. Esikhathini esizayo, kulindeleke ukuthi le nqubomgomo iqhubeke nokukhuthaza intuthuko yemboni yokugcina amandla, futhi ithuthukise kakhulu indawo yokuthuthukiswa kwemboni yokugcina amandla.
Isakhiwo semakethe sihlala silungiswa:Imakethe yokugcina amandla yase-US ihlukaniswe kakhulu yimakethe yangaphambi kwemitha (isitoreji samandla esikhulu, okuhlanganisa isitoreji esisha sokusabalalisa amandla kanye nesitoreji samandla esizimele) kanye nemakethe yangemuva kwemitha (isitoreji samandla sezimboni nezentengiselwano kanye nesitoreji sasekhaya). Njengamanje, amandla afakiwe okugcina amandla ngaphambi kwetafula angaphezulu kuka-90%, okuyi-wind vane yentuthuko. Esikhathini esizayo, ngokuthuthukiswa kwamandla asatshalaliswayo, imakethe yangemuva kwemitha, ikakhulukazi imakethe yokugcina yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi ilethe ukukhula okusheshayo. Isidingo semindeni sokuzimela kwamandla kanye namandla okusekelayo siyanda, okuzokhuthaza ukwanda okuqhubekayo kwemakethe yokugcina yasekhaya, futhi isakhiwo semakethe sizoba nokulinganisela okwengeziwe.
Ukusebenzisana okuseduze kwezimboni:Ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni yokugcina amandla kuzoqhuba ukuthuthukiswa kokubambisana kwemboni ephezulu nephansi. Ukubambisana phakathi kwabaphakeli bezinto zokusetshenziswa kwebhethri ephezulu, abakhiqizi bezinhlelo zokugcina amandla zebhethri ephakathi nendawo, abathuthukisi bephrojekthi yokugcina amandla kanye nabaqhubi kuzoba seduze kakhulu. Isibonelo, ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nesidingo semakethe samabhethri ashibhile, asebenza kahle kakhulu, abakhiqizi bamabhethri bazoqinisa ukubambisana nabaphakeli bezinto zokusetshenziswa ukuqinisekisa ukuhlinzekwa okuzinzile kwezinto zokusetshenziswa nokunciphisa izindleko; abakhiqizi bezinhlelo zokugcina amandla kanye nabathuthukisi bephrojekthi basebenzisana eduze ukuthuthukisa izixazululo zokugcina amandla ezenziwe ngokwezifiso ngokusekelwe ezimweni ezahlukene zohlelo lokusebenza. Ukuthuthukiswa kokubambisana kwemboni kuzothuthukisa ukuncintisana kwemboni yonke yokugcina amandla futhi kukhuthaze intuthuko esheshayo yemboni.
Kodwa-ke, imboni yokugcina amandla e-US nayo ibhekene nezinselele eziningana, njengokutshalwa kwezimali kokuqala okuphezulu ezinhlelweni zokugcina amandla, izinkinga zokuvuselela nokulahla amabhethri angcolile, kanye nengqalasizinda yegridi esiphelelwe yisikhathi kwezinye izindawo ukuze kuncishiswe ukuthunyelwa kwezinhlelo zokugcina amandla. Kodwa jikelele, eqhutshwa yisidingo semakethe, ukusungula izinto ezintsha kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nokusekelwa kwenqubomgomo nezinye izici, imboni yokugcina amandla e-US inamathuba abanzi entuthuko yesikhathi esizayo.
