Ngokukhawuleziswa kotshintsho lwamandla kwihlabathi liphela, imboni yokugcina amandla yaseMelika ibonakalise umkhwa wophuhliso onamandla, kwaye umkhwa wayo wophuhliso lwexesha elizayo ubonakala kakhulu kwezi zinto zilandelayo:
Ukwanda okuqhubekayo kwesikali semarike:Ngokwedatha ye-EIA, ukusukela ngoNovemba ka-2024, iifayile zokugcina amandla ezinkulu zase-US zifikelele kwi-56GW, ukukhula kwe-81% unyaka nonyaka; iifayile ze-PV zifikelele kwi-108GW, ukukhula kwe-20.6% unyaka nonyaka. Ngo-2025-2028, umthamo ohlanganisiweyo wokugcina amandla e-US kulindeleke ukuba ube yi-74.3GW/257.6GWh, apho izinga lokukhula konyaka lokugcina amandla kwinqanaba legridi liyi-25%. Koku, ukugcinwa kwamandla kwinqanaba legridi kulindeleke ukuba kukhule ngesantya sonyaka se-25%, kongeze i-10.4GW/30.6GWh ekupheleni kuka-2024, kunye nesimbuku esihlanganisiweyo se-63.7GW/222GWh kwixesha leminyaka emihlanu ka-2024-2028. Ngokuyintloko ngenxa yobungakanani obukhulu bezinto ezigciniweyo zeprojekthi, phantsi kolindelo lokuncitshiswa kwenzala kunye nokunyuka kwerhafu yebhetri, inkqubela phambili yokwakha iiprojekthi ezinkulu zokugcina kulindeleke ukuba ikhawuleze ngo-2025. Ukongeza, indawo yokugcina amandla esasazwe iya kuqalisa uphuhliso lwe-12GW oluza kusetyenziswa phakathi kowama-2024 nowama-2028, apho indawo yokugcina amandla ezindlu ibalwa yi-80%, ixabiso eliphantsi lokugcina amandla elixhomekeke ekwandeni komdla wabantu kumandla okulinda, liya kunyusa imarike yokugcina amandla yomsebenzisi, indawo yokugcina amandla emizi-mveliso kunye neyorhwebo nayo iya kukhula nge-294%.
Ubuchule bobuchwepheshe ukukhuthaza uphuhliso lwe:I-United States kwimizamo yophando nophuhliso lwetekhnoloji yokugcina amandla, iibhetri ze-lithium-ion zilawula okwangoku, kodwa abaphandi bahlola ngenkuthalo itekhnoloji entsha yokugcina amandla. Ezifana neebhetri zamandla ombane, iibhetri ze-solid-state kunye nezinye itekhnoloji yokugcina amandla yexesha elide ziye zaba yindawo eshushu yophando, iibhetri zamandla ombane, amandla okugcina amandla, ukutshaja kunye nokukhupha ubomi bomjikelo; iibhetri ze-solid-state kulindeleke ukuba zisombulule ingxaki yokhuseleko lwebhetri ye-lithium-ion kwaye ziphucule ukusebenza. Kwangaxeshanye, ezinye iiteknoloji zokugcina amandla ezisandula kuvela nazo ziyavela, ezifana "nenkqubo ye-geothermal ephuculweyo" esekelwe kuphuhliso lwetekhnoloji yokugcina amandla oomatshini (ivenkile yomhlaba) igqibe umboniso wezorhwebo, ibonisa iiyure ezi-6 ukuya kwezi-10 zomthamo wokugcina amandla kunye neendleko eziphantsi. Ukongeza, iiteknoloji zolawulo olukrelekrele kwiinkqubo zokugcina amandla ziya kuqhubeka nokukhula ukuze kufezekiswe ukusebenzisana okusebenzayo negridi kunye nokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kunye nozinzo.
Inkxaso eqhubekayo yomgaqo-nkqubo:Inkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo evela koorhulumente baseburhulumenteni nabephondo baseMelika ibaluleke kakhulu ekuphuhlisweni koshishino lokugcina amandla. Inqanaba likarhulumente loMthetho woKuncitshiswa kweNkunkuma (IRA) liza kuba yiprojekthi zokugcina amandla ezizimeleyo kumgaqo-nkqubo wekhredithi yerhafu (ITC), logama nje amandla okugcina amandla engaphezulu kwe-5kWh, ungonwabela ukhetho lwekhredithi yerhafu, nto leyo evuselela kakhulu imakethi yokugcina amandla. Amazwe akwazise imigaqo-nkqubo, efana neCalifornia enenkqubo yokukhuthaza ukuzivelisa (i-SGIP) ukuba ithathe isabelo esiphezulu semarike kwicandelo lokugcina amandla, kwaye iceba ukongeza i-15GW yokugcina entsha ngaphambi kwemitha kwiminyaka elishumi ezayo. Kwixesha elizayo, kulindeleke ukuba lo mgaqo-nkqubo uqhubeke nokukhuthaza uphuhliso loshishino lokugcina amandla, kwaye uphucule ngakumbi imeko yophuhliso loshishino lokugcina amandla.
Ulwakhiwo lwemarike luhlala luphuculwa:Imarike yokugcina amandla yaseMelika yahlulwe kakhulu yaba yimarike yangaphambi komlinganiselo (ugcino lwamandla olukhulu, kuquka ugcino olutsha lokusasazwa kwamandla kunye nogcino lwamandla oluzimeleyo) kunye nemarike yasemva komlinganiselo (ugcino lwamandla kwimizi-mveliso nakwezorhwebo kunye nogcino lwasekhaya). Okwangoku, umthamo ofakiweyo wokugcina amandla phambi kwetafile ungaphezulu kwe-90%, nto leyo ebangela uphuhliso lomoya. Kwixesha elizayo, ngophuhliso lwamandla asasazwayo, imarike yasemva komlinganiselo, ingakumbi imarike yokugcina yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba ingenise ukukhula okukhawulezileyo. Imfuno yeentsapho yokuzimela kwamandla kunye namandla okuxhasa iyanda, nto leyo eya kukhuthaza ukwanda okuqhubekayo kwemarike yokugcina yamakhaya, kwaye ulwakhiwo lwemarike luya kulungelelaniswa ngakumbi.
Ubudlelwane obusondeleyo kwimizi-mveliso:Uphuhliso lweshishini lokugcina amandla luya kuqhuba uphuhliso oluhambelanayo lweshishini eliphambili nelisezantsi. Intsebenziswano phakathi kwababoneleli bezixhobo zombane zebhetri ezisezantsi, abavelisi beenkqubo zokugcina amandla zebhetri eziphakathi kunye nabavelisi, abaphuhlisi beeprojekthi zokugcina amandla kunye nabaqhubi iya kuba kufutshane. Umzekelo, ukuze kuhlangatyezwane neemfuno zemarike zeebhetri ezingabizi kakhulu nezisebenza kakuhle, abavelisi beebhetri baya kuqinisa intsebenziswano nabathengisi bezixhobo zombane ukuqinisekisa ukunikezelwa okuzinzileyo kwezixhobo zombane kunye nokunciphisa iindleko; abavelisi beenkqubo zokugcina amandla kunye nabaphuhlisi beeprojekthi basebenzisana ngokusondeleyo ukuphuhlisa izisombululo zokugcina amandla ezenzelwe wena ngokusekelwe kwiimeko ezahlukeneyo zesicelo. Uphuhliso oluhambelanayo lweshishini luya kuphucula ukukhuphisana kweshishini lonke lokugcina amandla kwaye lukhuthaze uphuhliso olukhawulezayo lweshishini.
Nangona kunjalo, imboni yokugcina amandla yaseMelika ikwajongene nemingeni emininzi, efana notyalo-mali olukhulu lokuqala kwiinkqubo zokugcina amandla, imiba yokusetyenziswa kwakhona kwebhetri elahliweyo kunye nokulahla, kunye neziseko zegridi eziphelelwe lixesha kwezinye iindawo ukunciphisa ukusasazwa kweenkqubo zokugcina amandla. Kodwa ngokubanzi, iqhutywa yimfuno yemarike, ubuchule bobuchwepheshe kunye nenkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo kunye nezinye izinto, imboni yokugcina amandla yaseMelika inamathuba abanzi ophuhliso lwexesha elizayo.
