Nk’uko raporo y’Ikigo Mpuzamahanga gishinzwe Ingufu (IEA) ibivuga, ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y’izuba ziteganijwe kugera kuri kimwe cya kabiri cy’ubwiyongere bw’ingufu zisabwa ku isi mu 2027.
Raporo y’ingenzi y’ikigo iteganya ko bitewe n’ubwiyongere bw’ikoreshwa ry’inganda, ikoreshwa ry’ibikoresho bikonjesha, amashanyarazi, n’ubukene bw’ibigo by’amakuru, ikoreshwa ry’amashanyarazi ku isi rizazamuka ku muvuduko waryo mu myaka ya vuba aha, rikiyongeraho hafi 4% buri mwaka kugeza mu 2027.
Raporo isobanura ko kugabanya ibiciro bihoraho no gushyigikira politiki bizatuma imirasire y'izuba ikoreshwa, bigatuma igera kuri kimwe cya kabiri cy'inyongera y'amashanyarazi ikenewe. Iki gipimo cyarenze 40% by'imigabane y'izuba yagize uruhare mu kwiyongera kw'ikwirakwizwa ry'amashanyarazi ku isi mu 2024. Mu 2027, amasoko y'ingufu nke zihumanya ikirere—harimo ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa n'ingufu za kirimbuzi—biteganijwe ko azahura n'ikwirakwizwa ry'ingufu zose ziyongera ku isi zikoreshwa mu mashanyarazi.
Raporo ya IEA igaragaza kandi ko mu 2024, ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba ku isi zarenze igipimo cya 2.000TWh, zigize 7% by'amashanyarazi yose akoreshwa—izamuka riva kuri 5% mu 2023.
Ibi bivuze ko ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba ziyongereyeho 30% mu 2024, bikaba ari byo byazamutse cyane kuva mu 2017, aho buri mwaka hiyongereyeho 475TWh, igiciro kinini cyane. IEA ivuga ko kimwe cya kabiri cy'iri zamuka ryaturutse mu Bushinwa.
Mu 2024, ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba zarenze umusaruro w'amashanyarazi ukomoka ku makara mu Muryango w'Ubumwe bw'u Burayi, zirenga imigabane ya 10% mu mvange y'ingufu. Mu myaka itatu iri imbere, IEA iteganya ko ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba zizarenga kandi 10% mu Bushinwa, muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika no mu Buhinde.
Mu gihe cy’iteganyagihe cya 2025-2027, ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y’izuba ku isi ziteganijwe kwiyongeraho hafi 1.800TWh. Mu 2027, iri terambere rizatuma imirasire y’izuba iba isoko ya kabiri ku isi ifite ingufu nke zihumanya ikirere, ikaba iya kabiri nyuma y’ingufu zikomoka ku mazi.
Hagati aho, amasoko y'ingufu zishobora kongera gukoreshwa yitezweho kuzarenga ingufu zikoreshwa n'amakara muri uyu mwaka. Ku nshuro ya mbere mu kinyejana, uruhare rw'amakara mu kubyaza amashanyarazi ku isi ruteganijwe kugabanuka munsi ya kimwe cya gatatu.
Raporo inashimangira akamaro ko gusobanukirwa ibihe aho ingufu za PV zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba zigabanuka bitewe n'ikirere. "Nubwo ibintu nk'ibi bishobora guteza ibibazo ku buryo bw'amashanyarazi, kugira ubushobozi buhagije bwo kohereza no kubika ibintu mu gihe kirekire bizaba ngombwa," nk'uko raporo ibivuga.
Byongeye kandi, raporo igaragaza imbogamizi zikomeye sisitemu z'amashanyarazi zahuye nazo mu 2024. IEA ivuga ko ibintu nk'inkubi y'umuyaga mu gihe cy'itumba, inkubi y'umuyaga, ibura ry'amashanyarazi, n'amapfa bigaragaza ko hakenewe kongera imbaraga mu mikorere y'ingufu.
Mu turere tumwe na tumwe, izamuka ry’ibiciro by’amashanyarazi ku bucuruzi bwagutse ryateje ibiciro bibi ku bucuruzi bwagutse. Nk’uko IEA ibivuga, ibi bikunze kugaragaza ko sisitemu idakora neza bitewe n’imbogamizi za tekiniki, amategeko, cyangwa amasezerano, bigashimangira ko hakenewe kongera uburyo bwo guhindura imiterere y’amashanyarazi.
