Sekureva kwemushumo weInternational Energy Agency (IEA) Electricity 2025, simba rezuva rinotarisirwa kusangana nehafu yekukura kwezvinodiwa nemagetsi pasi rose panosvika gore ra2027.
Mushumo mukuru wesangano iri unofanotaura kuti nekuda kwekuwedzera kwekushandiswa kwemagetsi mumaindasitiri, kushandiswa kwemhepo inotonhodza, kuiswa kwemagetsi, uye kudiwa kwenzvimbo dzedata, kushandiswa kwemagetsi pasi rose kuchakura nekukurumidza mumakore achangopfuura, kuchikwira neinenge 4% pagore kusvika muna 2027.
Mushumo wacho unotsanangura kuti kudzikiswa kwemitengo nguva dzose uye rutsigiro rwemitemo zvichakurudzira kushandiswa kwesimba rezuva, zvichibvumira kuti risvike pahafu yezvinodiwa zvemagetsi. Izvi zvinodarika 40% yezvikamu zvesimba rezuva zvakabatsira mukukura kwezvinodiwa zvemagetsi pasi rose muna 2024. Pakazosvika 2027, masosi esimba ane utsi hushoma—kusanganisira magetsi anodzorerwa uye simba renyukireya—anotarisirwa kusangana nezvinodiwa zvemagetsi zviri kukura pasi rose.
Mushumo weIEA unoratidza zvakare kuti muna 2024, kugadzirwa kwesimba rezuva pasi rose kwakapfuura chiratidzo che2,000TWh, zvichireva 7% yemagetsi ese anowanikwa—kuwedzera kubva pa5% muna 2023.
Izvi zvinoreva kuti kugadzirwa kwemagetsi ezuva kwakawedzera ne30% muna 2024, zvichiratidza mwero wekukura wepamusoro kubva muna 2017, nekuwedzera kwegore negore kwe475TWh, yakakwira zvikuru. IEA inoti inopfuura hafu yekukura uku kwakabva kuChina.
Pakazosvika gore ra2024, kugadzirwa kwesimba rezuva kwakapfuura kugadzirwa kwemagetsi emarasha muEuropean Union, zvichipfuura chikamu che10% musanganiswa wesimba. Mumakore matatu anotevera, IEA inofanotaura kuti simba rezuva richapfuurawo chiyero che10% muChina, United States, neIndia.
Munguva yekufungidzira kwe2025-2027, kugadzirwa kwesimba rezuva pasi rose kunotarisirwa kuwedzera neinenge 1,800TWh. Pakazosvika 2027, kukura uku kuchaita kuti simba rezuva rive rechipiri pakukura pasi rose pamagetsi asingaburitse mweya yakawanda, richitevera simba remvura.
Zvichakadaro, simba rinogona kushandiswazve rinotarisirwa kupfuura simba remarasha gore rino. Kekutanga muzana remakore, chikamu chemarasha mukugadzirwa kwemagetsi pasi rose chinotarisirwa kudzikira pasi pechikamu chimwe muzvitatu.
Mushumo uyu unosimbisawo kukosha kwekunzwisisa nguva apo simba rezuva rePV rinodzikira nekuda kwemamiriro ekunze. "Kunyange zvazvo zviitiko zvakadaro zvingaisa dambudziko pamasisitimu emagetsi, kuva nesimba rakakwana rekutumira magetsi uye kuchengetedza kwenguva refu kuchave kwakakosha," mushumo unorayira kudaro.
Pamusoro pezvo, mushumo uyu unoratidza matambudziko makuru akatarisana nemagetsi muna 2024. IEA inoti zviitiko zvakaita semadutu echando, madutu, kudzimwa kwemagetsi, uye kusanaya kwemvura zvinoratidza kukosha kwekuvandudza kusimba kwemagetsi.
Mune dzimwe nzvimbo, kukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi emagetsi ekutengesa zvinhu zvakawanda kwakakonzera mitengo yakaderera. Sekureva kweIEA, zviitiko izvi zvinowanzo ratidza kusakwana kwesimba remagetsi nekuda kwezvirambidzo zvehunyanzvi, zvemitemo, kana zvechibvumirano, zvichisimbisa kudiwa kuri kukura kwesimba remagetsi emagetsi.
