Ngokwengxelo ye-International Energy Agency (IEA) Electricity 2025, amandla elanga kulindeleke ukuba ahlangabezane nesiqingatha sokukhula kwemfuno yombane kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2027.
Ingxelo ephambili ye-arhente iqikelela ukuba ngenxa yokwanda kokusetyenziswa kwemizi-mveliso, ukusetyenziswa komoya opholileyo, umbane, kunye nemfuno yeziko ledatha, ukusetyenziswa kombane kwihlabathi liphela kuya kukhula ngesantya esiphezulu kwiminyaka yakutshanje, kunyuke phantse nge-4% ngonyaka ukuya kuthi ga ngo-2027.
Ingxelo ichaza ukuba ukunciphisa iindleko okuqhubekayo kunye nenkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo kuya kuqhuba ukusasazwa kwamandla elanga, okuvumela ukuba kuhlangatyezwane nesiqingatha semfuno yombane eyongezelelweyo. Olu qikelelo ludlula isabelo se-40% selanga esinegalelo ekukhuleni kwemfuno yombane wehlabathi ngo-2024. Ngo-2027, imithombo yamandla akhupha umbane omncinci—kuquka amandla avuselelekayo kunye namandla enyukliya—kulindeleke ukuba ihlangabezane nayo yonke imfuno yombane ekhulayo kwihlabathi.
Ingxelo ye-IEA igxininisa ngakumbi ukuba ngo-2024, ukuveliswa kwamandla elanga kwihlabathi liphela kudlule uphawu lwe-2,000TWh, oluyi-7% yokuveliswa kombane iyonke—ukwanda ukusuka kwi-5% ngo-2023.
Oku kuthetha ukuba ukuveliswa kwamandla elanga kukhule ngama-30% ngo-2024, nto leyo ephawula izinga lokukhula eliphezulu ukusukela ngo-2017, kunye nokunyuka kwe-475TWh ngonyaka, irekhodi eliphezulu. I-IEA iphawula ukuba ngaphezulu kwesiqingatha sale nkqubela phambili ivela eTshayina.
Ngowama-2024, ukuveliswa kwamandla elanga kudlule imveliso yombane osebenzisa amalahle kwiManyano yaseYurophu, kudlula isabelo se-10% kumxube wamandla. Kwiminyaka emithathu ezayo, i-IEA iqikelela ukuba amandla elanga aya kudlula ne-10% eTshayina, eMelika naseIndiya.
Ngexesha lokuqikelela kuka-2025-2027, ukuveliswa kwamandla elanga kwihlabathi jikelele kulindeleke ukuba kwande malunga ne-1,800TWh. Ngo-2027, olu kukhula luya kwenza amandla elanga abe ngumthombo wesibini ngobukhulu emhlabeni ongenamandla angcolileyo, olandela amandla e-hydropower kuphela.
Okwangoku, imithombo yamandla avuselelekayo kulindeleke ukuba idlule amandla asebenzisa amalahle kulo nyaka. Okokuqala kwinkulungwane, isabelo samalahle ekuveliseni umbane kwihlabathi liphela kulindeleke ukuba sehle ngaphantsi kwesithathu.
Ingxelo ikwagxininisa ukubaluleka kokuqonda amaxesha apho umbane welanga we-PV uncipha ngenxa yeemeko zemozulu. "Nangona iziganeko ezinjalo zinokubangela uxinzelelo kwiinkqubo zamandla, ukuba nomthamo owaneleyo wokuhambisa kunye nokugcinwa kwexesha elide kuya kuba yimfuneko," icebisa ingxelo.
Ukongeza, ingxelo igxininisa imingeni ephambili ejongene neenkqubo zamandla ngo-2024. I-IEA ithi iziganeko ezifana nezivuthuvuthu zasebusika, iinkanyamba, ukucima kombane, kunye nembalela zigxininisa imfuneko yokuphucula ukuqina kwenkqubo yamandla.
Kweminye imimandla, ukunyuka kokuguquguquka kwamaxabiso ombane ngobuninzi kukhokelele kumaxabiso aphantsi ombane ngobuninzi. Ngokwe-IEA, ezi ziganeko zihlala zibonisa ukungoneli kokuguquguquka kwenkqubo ngenxa yemida yobugcisa, yemithetho, okanye yesivumelwano, nto leyo eqinisa isidingo esikhulayo sokuguquguquka kwegridi.
