Ukwanda okusheshayo kwamandla avuselelekayo asetshenziswayo emhlabeni wonke kudala imakethe enkulu yokugcina amandla. Amaseli elanga, izimoto zikagesi, namabhethri e-lithium yizimboni ezintathu ezisathuthuka ezithuthukisa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe emhlabeni jikelele. Lezi "zintathu ezintsha" ekuhwebeni kwamazwe ngamazwe zikhiqize amathuba okukhula angakaze abonwe ezimbonini zokugcina amandla elanga kanye nawamandla. Ukugcinwa kwamandla okwamanje kubonisa indlela yokukhula ebonakalayo, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ngo-2024, kuzobonisa okungenani izitayela ezine eziphawulekayo ezizoguqula kakhulu imakethe yamandla yomhlaba wonke.
1. Ukusheshisa intuthuko yemakethe yendawo yasekhaya kuthuthukisa inzuzo yabathengisi bezindawo zokugcina ugesi kanye nomnotho wamaphrojekthi.
NgoSepthemba 2023, i-National Energy Administration kanye ne-National Development and Reform Commission yaseShayina bakhipha iziqondiso zokuqala zokuhweba emakethe kagesi zesizwe. Lo mthetho uqhubekisela phambili ukuguqulwa kwemakethe kagesi yaseShayina. Umbhalo unikeza isiqondiso esicacile sokuthi amandla amasha angahlanganyela kanjani emakethe kagesi ngendlela ehlelekile nezinzile ukuze kuthuthukiswe indlela yemakethe ehambisana nezici zayo. Ukuze kulondolozwe ukuzinza nokuqhubeka kwenqubomgomo, le ndlela kumele ihlanganiswe nenqubomgomo entsha yokuphepha kwamandla. Ngaphezu kokuheha amabhizinisi amasha afana nama-load aggregators, isitoreji samandla, kanye nezitshalo zamandla ezibonakalayo, ukuhweba ngamandla kuvuselela imakethe.
Ngo-Okthoba 2023, i-Energy Bureau kanye ne-NDRC baphinde bakhipha i-Circle on Further Accelerating Electricity Spot Market Construction. Kulesi simemezelo, izidingo zokwakhiwa kwemakethe kagesi zacaciswa. Uhulumeni ubelokhu ephoqelela izinqubomgomo zemakethe kagesi kusukela ngoSepthemba 2023, ebonisa ukuzinikela kwakhe ekukhuthazeni ukwanda kwemakethe. Iningi lezifundazwe nezifunda kulindeleke ukuthi liqalise ukusebenza kwesilingo sokuxazulula isikhathi eside ngo-2024. Okuphawulekayo ukuthi izifundazwe nezifunda ezithuthuka ngokushesha kulindeleke ukuthi zishintshele ngqo ekusebenzeni okusemthethweni.
IShandong neGuangdong zingabaphambili ezimakethe zezinsizakalo ezisizayo kanye namandla kagesi aqondile maqondana nokugcinwa kwamandla okuzimele. Kulindeleke ukuthi ukufezwa kwamaphrojekthi okugcina amandla angaphakathi anenzuzo kuzogcwaliseka ngokugcwele ngo-2024, njengoba lezi zifunda ziqoqa ulwazi kulo mkhakha. Lokhu kuzokhulisa ukuncintisana kanye nokuvuthwa kwemakethe yamandla aseShayina ngenkathi kuthuthukiswa umnotho wamaphrojekthi okugcina amandla. Amandla emakethe kanye nenqubomgomo kusheshisa intuthuko yemakethe yasekhaya yamandla aqondile, okukhuthaza ukwanda kwemboni yokugcina amandla.
2. Inzuzo yezindleko ivula umnyango wokuncintisana, igcizelela ikhono lochungechunge lwemboni. Izinkampani zingakhiqiza inzuzo ngokucwaninga okwengeziwe kwemishini kanye nokukhiqiza ezingeni lamanje lamanani.
Ukuthengisa nokuthunyelwa kwezinkampani zokugcina amandla kuye kwakhula kakhulu ngesikhathi esifanayo nokwanda kwezimakethe zokugcina amandla zasekhaya nezamazwe ngamazwe. Amakhono okuzikhiqiza kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwemishini aphezulu kakhulu ayadingeka ukuze abathengisi bathole inzuzo ezingeni lamanje lentengo. Ukuze kuncishiswe izindleko futhi kwandiswe ukuncintisana komkhiqizo, kudingeka ukuzihlola okuphelele kwe-stack yonke—kusukela ku-electric core kuya ku-PCS kuya ekuhlanganisweni kwesistimu—nolwazi lwe-electrochemical, i-power electronics, kanye nobuchwepheshe bedijithali. Umphumela wesilinganiso se-core segment unciphisa kokubili izindleko eziqondile nezingezona izinto ezibonakalayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, imajini ephelele yebhizinisi inkulu kakhulu kunesamba sayo yonke imisebenzi yangaphandle yebhizinisi elilodwa lokuhlanganisa uhlelo ngenxa yamandla alo amakhulu okukhiqiza kanye nekhono lokukhiqiza uhlelo lwayo lwe-DC side.
Ihadiwe edingekayo yesofthiwe yokusebenza nokugcinwa kwesitshalo samandla okugcina amandla, ethola futhi iqaphe isimo sesitshalo samandla, ivame ukutholakala kubahlanganisi abaningi besimanje. Umehluko ubonakala ngokuqapha izinga lokucwengwa, okuhlanganisa ukuhlola ukusebenza kwe-core eyodwa nokuhlonza ngokushesha izici zokushisa ezibalekayo. Amasu okukhulisa inzuzo ahilela ukulawula ukusebenza okuzenzakalelayo okubikezela amanani kagesi kungaba isigaba esilandelayo sokuncintisana. Ngemuva kwalokho, ukuhlukaniswa komkhiqizo kuzobonakala kakhulu, futhi ikhono lokuphatha lonke uchungechunge lokukhiqiza ngokusebenzisa amandla agcwele lingandisa ukuthembeka komkhiqizo. Ngakho-ke, izinkampani zokugcina amandla kumele zandise ikhono lazo lobuchwepheshe futhi zisungule izinto ezintsha ukuze zihlale zincintisana emakethe enamandla.
3. Ukugcinwa kwamandla olwandle kunenzuzo futhi kunamandla amakhulu emakethe; izinkampani zasekhaya zokugcina amandla zizoqhubeka nokukhula emhlabeni jikelele.
Amamodeli amaningi emali engenayo agxile emakethe, okuhlanganisa ukuhweba ngamandla kagesi, ukulawulwa kwemvamisa, ukulinda, nokunye, kwandisa umehluko wentengo kanye nokubuyiselwa kwemali eyengeziwe kumaphrojekthi okugcina amandla aphesheya kwezilwandle ngaphansi kwezimo ezithile, ngaleyo ndlela kuthuthukisa izinzuzo zomnotho. Ngenkathi amaphrojekthi okugcina amandla asekhaya eqhubeka nokuthuthukisa izinsizakalo ezisizayo kanye nokuhweba okuqondile, ingxenye enkulu yemali engenayo yawo ikhiqizwa ngezindlela zokumaketha ezibambezelekile njengokuqasha amandla. Ngakho-ke, imingcele yangaphandle engaxazululwa inkulu kakhulu kuneyasekhaya.
Ngenxa yokuhwebelana kwemboni kagesi emhlabeni jikelele, izimakethe zokugcina amandla kwamanye amazwe ziyachuma. Ngenxa yochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa, ezemvelo, kanye nokucatshangelwa kwemakethe, imboni yokugcina amandla kwamanye amazwe incike ezimakethe zangaphandle ukuthola izinto zokusetshenziswa eziphezulu, izingxenye nezingxenye ezingezansi komfula, izinto ze-anode ne-cathode, amabhethri, nezingxenye nezingxenye ezingezansi komfula. Izinkampani zokugcina amandla zasekhaya ziya kwamanye amazwe ngomzamo wokunqoba lezi zinselele futhi zibambe amathuba entuthuko.
Ukuze kwandiswe imboni, i-United States kanye nabanye ohulumeni bakhuthaza ukugcinwa kwamandla njengomkhakha obalulekile wokukhiqiza. Emzamweni wokuthuthukisa uchungechunge lwemboni ngokutshalwa kwezimali kwezobuchwepheshe okwandisiwe, ucwaningo kanye nentuthuko, kanye nokukhiqizwa kobuchwepheshe obusha bokugcinwa kwamandla kanye nezicelo ezigcwele zentuthuko yendawo yesikhathi esizayo, iNyakatho Melika kanye neYurophu basungula uchungechunge oluzimele lokunikezwa kokugcinwa kwamandla.
Izinkampani eziningi ezidumile zokugcina amandla zasekhaya ziyaqaphela ukubaluleka kolwandle, okusheshisa ukuhwebelana komhlaba wonke ngokwandisa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, ukwakhiwa kwamafektri phesheya kwezilwandle, kanye "nokuqala" kwamandla okukhiqiza aphezulu emhlabeni jikelele. Izici zemakethe yokugcina amandla yangaphandle njengesimo sokutshalwa kwezimali, izinsiza zabantu, ukungalingani kwamasiko, umjikelezo wokwakha kanye nenethiwekhi yokuthengisa, ukwesekwa kweketanga lezimboni, kanye nokukhishwa kwekhabhoni kudinga ukuthi izinkampani zokugcina amandla zasekhaya ziphendule ekushintsheni kwemakethe kanye nesidingo samakhasimende ngokunakekela okukhulu ukuze kufezwe intuthuko esimeme.
4. Ukuthuthukiswa okusheshayo kokuhlanganiswa kwesitoreji esincane
Ukusetshenziswa okusha kokukhanya okusatshalaliswayo kanye nokugcina izinto kungumphumela wesidingo somhlaba wonke samandla avuselelekayo. Ukwanda kwezimoto zikagesi kanye nezinhlelo ze-photovoltaic ezisatshalaliswayo kuveza amathuba amakhulu okuhlanganiswa kwezinhlelo zokushaja kanye nokugcina izinto ezikhanyayo. Ngokwandisa ukusebenza kahle kwamandla kanye nokunciphisa ukuthembela emithonjeni yamandla evamile, lo mqondo wentuthuko ehlanganisiwe uvikela imvelo.
Okwesibili, izindawo kanye nezifundazwe ezinenani elikhulu kakhulu lamandla e-PV asatshalaliswa zifisa isitoreji se-PV esixhunywe kugridi. Ngokushintsha amanani okwabelana ngesikhathi, ukuthuthukisa izimakethe zesevisi yokusiza ugesi, kanye nokusebenzisa izitshalo zamandla ezibonakalayo, ezikhulisa amathuba okugcina i-photovoltaic kanye namathuba enzuzo yokushaja, lezi zifunda zisabela esibizweni sesizwe sokuthuthukiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo. Njengoba lezi zindawo zibonisa ukuthi ziyasebenza, imodeli yenzuzo ehlotshaniswa nokuhlanganiswa kwesitoreji sokushaja kanye nesitoreji sokukhanya izokwanda.
Futhi, ukuhlanganiswa kwesitoreji se-optical saseYurophu kuyintuthuko enikeza imboni yesitoreji se-optical yomhlaba wonke ukuqonda nokuphefumulelwa. Ukuvela kweziteshi zamandla zesitoreji se-optical kusuka ku-passive kuya ku-active kuzokwakha ikusasa lensimu. Ukuze kutholakale intuthuko ephezulu, izinkampani ezihamba phambili ekugcinweni kwamandla zikhuthaza ukusungulwa kwendalo entsha.
Kumelwe sisheshise ukuthuthukiswa "kwezihluthulelo ezine" - i-photovoltaic, isitoreji samandla, i-hydrogen, amandla, nezinye izinhlelo zamandla - ukuze sifinyelele ikusasa elingenayo i-carbon ekhishwayo. Imizamo enjalo iyona kuphela indlela yokufeza amandla nokusimama kwemvelo nokwakha ikusasa eliqhakazile.
