Imakethe ye-photovoltaic (PV) ibhekane nokwehla okuqhubekayo muva nje, okubonakala ngenkinga eqhubekayo yomthamo womhlaba wonke. Le nkinga ikhuthaza ukuzindla ngamathuba entuthuko yesikhathi esizayo kanye nethuba lokuthi i-PV iphinde ivele njengokugxila okuhamba phambili ocwaningweni lwamandla emhlabeni jikelele.
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, isizwe sethu sibhekane nentuthuko esheshayo embonini ye-PV, eqhutshwa uchungechunge lwezinqubomgomo zikahulumeni ezenzelwe ukukhuthaza ukuvela kwe-PV okugxile emakethe. Umklamo wamasu osezingeni eliphezulu kanye nokuzibophezela ezinhlosweni ze-"Carbon Neutrality" kanye ne-"Carbon Peak" kubeke ithoni ecacile yokukhula okusheshayo kwemboni yethu ye-photovoltaic. I-China okwamanje imi phambili embonini ye-PV yomhlaba wonke, iziqhenya ngobuqotho kuyo yonke iketanga layo lemboni, amandla okukhiqiza aphezulu kakhulu, kanye nesabelo esikhulu semakethe.
Amandla obuchwepheshe embonini yokuphehla ugesi we-PV yaseShayina akhule kakhulu eminyakeni yamuva nje, eqhubeka nokuqamba izinto ezintsha futhi ngenxa yalokho eqhuba ukwehla okuphawulekayo kwezindleko zokuphehla ugesi we-PV. Izibalo zezinyanga eziyisishiyagalombili zokuqala zika-2023 zibonisa ukwanda okukhulu kwamandla e-photovoltaic aseShayina afakiwe, akhuphuka ngo-44.4% unyaka nonyaka. Lesi sikhathi sibone izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe elingu-26.98% kusukela ngo-2019 kuya ku-2023, okubonisa indlela eqhubekayo yokunyuka.
Izinyanga zokuqala eziyisishiyagalombili zika-2023 zaphawula ukwengezwa kwamandla amasha angu-113.16 GW, ukwanda okuphawulekayo kwe-68.69 GW kusukela ngonyaka odlule. Lokhu kwabangela cishe u-57% wawo wonke amandla amasha, kudlula ama-kilowatts ayizigidi eziyi-100 okokuqala ngqa eShayina. Ngaphezu kwalokho, irekhodi eliphakeme lama-kilowatts ayizigidi ezingu-87.41 lamandla e-photovoltaic engeziwe ngo-2022 lenyuke ngama-kilowatts ayizigidi ezingu-25 ezinyangeni zokuqala eziyisishiyagalombili zika-2023, okucishe kube ukwanda ngo-30%. Izinga lokukhula okuhlanganisiwe phakathi kuka-2019-2023 lenyuke laya ku-50.28% emangalisayo, ligcina ukuthambekela okukhuphukayo.
Ukuhlola ukuphakelwa kwemboni, amandla okukhiqiza kagesi we-photovoltaic eShayina amanje aqinile. Njengoba kukhuliswe inqubomgomo yezwe yokusebenzisa amakhabhoni amabili, ukuphakelwa kuyaqhubeka nokwanda. Izibikezelo ze-China Photovoltaic Industry Association zibuyekeze izilinganiso zamandla kagesi we-PV emhlabeni wonke kusukela ku-280-330 GW kuya ku-305-350 GW ngo-2023. Naphezu kokwehla komnotho womhlaba wonke, imboni ye-PV imi njengomunye wabambalwa ababona ukuchuma okukhulu nokukhula okusheshayo, okuheha abantu abasha abangenayo kanye nemali eningi ewela imingcele. Kodwa-ke, lokhu kwanda kwenza kube nzima kakhulu ukwamukela ukungena okusheshayo kwamandla amasha ngaphakathi kobubanzi besidingo esilinganiselwe, kusunduza imboni esigabeni esisheshayo sokuphindaphinda amandla nokwakhiwa kabusha.
Ukuguquguquka kwemakethe kubonisa ukuthi amandla okushisa agcina isikhundla sawo esiphambili ekukhiqizeni ugesi wasekhaya, okwenza ingxenye yemakethe ibe yisigamu, kuyilapho i-PV ikhuphuke kancane kancane yaya ku-18.40%, ithola indawo yesibili. Ijubane lokuthuthukiswa kwe-PV likhula kancane kancane.
Ukuhlola isidingo semboni, ngenkathi ukubala isidingo samandla elanga kusalokhu kuyinkimbinkimbi, amazinga amanje omhlaba wonke ahlose ukuthi amandla avuselelekayo adlule u-50% wokukhiqizwa kukagesi ngo-2050. Okwamanje, amandla avuselelekayo aseShayina abiza u-18.40% kuphela, okubonisa isikhala esikhulu sokukhula, yize isikhathi eside. Uma sibheka umthamo wegridi kanye nokugcinwa kwamandla, ngo-2030, cishe kuzodingeka ama-gigawatts angu-5,000 omthamo ofakiwe, uma kubhekwa isilinganiso samanje sokuthi i-kilowatt eyodwa yamandla e-photovoltaic ikhiqiza cishe ama-degrees angu-1,500 ngaphandle kokufaka imingcele yegridi. Noma kunjalo, isimo samanje sobuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla sisho isikhala esikhulu sokuthuthukiswa, sinciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwayo ngokushesha.
Umbono ophelele wokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo wembula ibhalansi engaqinisekile. Amandla okukhiqiza i-PV asondela ku-1000 GW adlula kakhulu isidingo semboni, okuholela ekukhuleni okubonakalayo kwamandla kulo nyaka. Kodwa-ke, ukukhathazeka okubalulekile kuya phambili kwe-PV, kulindele ukwanda okuqhubekayo kokuhlinzeka. Okuphawulekayo ukuthi, ngamanani e-PV axhunywe kugridi afanele kanye nezindleko zezimali ezifanele, okukhuthaza noma iyiphi inkampani yamandla ukwakha izitshalo zamandla ze-photovoltaic, lo mkhakha unamandla amakhulu. Ukusekelwa okuqhubekayo kwenqubomgomo, kanye nokuncintisana okukhulu kwasekhaya, kuzoqhuba izinguquko zamabhizinisi kanye nentuthuko entsha, ngaleyo ndlela kunqume inkambo yesikhathi esizayo yemboni.
Izitayela Zomkhakha Zonkana:
Intuthuko Yezobuchwepheshe:Ukuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kwezobuchwepheshe kuzokhuthaza ukusungula izinto ezintsha kanye nokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza ugesi be-PV.
Ukugcinwa Kwamandla kanye Nomthamo Wegridi: Ukuthuthukiswa kanye nokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla, kanye nomthamo wegridi oqinisiwe, kubalulekile ekunciphiseni ukuphelelwa yisikhathi kokukhiqizwa kukagesi we-PV nokuqinisekisa ukuzinza kohlelo lwamandla.
Ukwakhiwa kweGridi ehlakaniphile:Ukwakha amagridi ahlakaniphile kuzokwenza ngcono ukwabiwa kwemithombo yamandla, kuthuthukise uhlelo lwamandla olusebenza kahle.
Ukusekelwa Kwenqubomgomo Yokuncintisana Kwemakethe: Izinhlelo zikahulumeni ezihlose ukukhuthaza ukukhiqizwa kukagesi ngokulingana kwe-PV zimemezela ushintsho kusuka ekuncintisaneni okuqhutshwa yinqubomgomo kuya ekuncintisaneni okugxile emakethe ngaphakathi kwemboni yokukhiqizwa kukagesi kwe-PV.
Ukuguquka Kwamandla Omhlaba Wonke:Njengoba kubhekene nokuwohloka kwemvelo emhlabeni jikelele kanye nokuntuleka kwezinsizakusebenza, ukubaluleka kokuguqulwa okuphelele kwesistimu yamandla kukhuthaza ukwanda nokusetshenziswa kwemithombo yamandla avuselelekayo. Ngenxa yezidingo zayo eziphansi zezinsizakusebenza, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni okuncane, kanye nokusebenza kahle kokukhiqizwa, amandla elanga, ikakhulukazi i-PV, alungele intuthuko esheshayo ehambisana nezinguquko zesistimu yamandla.
Ekuphetheni, ngenkathi imboni ye-PV ibhekene nomthamo omkhulu kanye nezinselele zemakethe, ikusasa layo libonakala lithembisa. Ukusungula izinto ezintsha kwezobuchwepheshe okuqhubekayo, ukuhambisana kwenqubomgomo, kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okunesu ezindaweni zokugcina kanye namakhono egridi kuzoba usizo ekuqondiseni imboni ekukhuleni nasekuzinzeni okuqhubekayo.
