M'zaka zaposachedwa, ma PV apakhomo, monga gawo lofunikira pakusintha kwa mphamvu ku China, akumana ndi chitukuko chachangu kuyambira pachiyambi, kuyambira ofooka mpaka amphamvu. Chifukwa cha kusintha kwa mfundo ndi kusinthasintha kwa kufunikira kwa msika, makampani a ma PV apakhomo akukumananso ndi mavuto ndi mwayi wambiri.
1. Kusintha kwa msika koyendetsedwa ndi mfundo
M'zaka zaposachedwa, National Energy Administration (NEA) yatulutsa mfundo zingapo kuti zithandizire kwambiri pakukula kwa msika wa PV wa m'nyumba. 2024 Mu Okutobala, NEA idatulutsa "Njira Zoyendetsera Ntchito Zopangira ndi Kumanga Mphamvu Yogawanitsidwa ya Photovoltaic (Exposure Draft)" (yomwe pano ikutchedwa "Exposure Draft"), yomwe imafotokoza momveka bwino mu Nkhani 36 kuti mapulojekiti opanga mphamvu ya photovoltaic yogawanitsidwa ayenera kutenga nawo mbali pamsika wamagetsi motsatira malamulo oyenera a boma, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti photovoltaic ya m'nyumba "ikulowa pamsika" yamalizidwa. Kusintha kwa ndondomekoyi kwakhudza kwambiri msika wa PV wa m'nyumba. Malinga ndi deta ya National Energy Board, mphamvu ya PV ya m'nyumba ya 2023 idafika pa 43.48GW, yomwe ndi yapamwamba kwambiri. Komabe, ndi kukula mwachangu kwa kukula kwa kuyika kwa PV yogawanitsidwa, madera ena awonekera ngati vuto la kugwiritsa ntchito. Kuyambitsa "Exposure Draft" cholinga chake ndi kutsogolera mwayi wopeza magetsi ogawidwa bwino komanso kugwiritsa ntchito bwino magetsi kudzera munjira zogulitsira, ndikulimbikitsa kugawa bwino mphamvu zamagetsi. Kuphatikiza apo, "Exposure Draft" kwa nthawi yoyamba mtundu wa projekiti ya "nyumba ya munthu wosakhala wachilengedwe", kupatsa munthu wosakhala wachilengedwe ufulu wopereka mapulojekiti apakhomo, kuthetsa nkhani yokhudza ndalama za projekiti yanyumba kwa nthawi yayitali komanso nkhani yokhudza kufalitsa vuto losagwirizana. Malinga ndi kuyerekezera, msika wa PV wapakhomo ku China uli ndi mphamvu zambiri zopitilira 1600GW, akuyembekezeka kukhazikitsa madenga a PV apakhomo opitilira 80 miliyoni, kuchuluka kwa magetsi omwe alipo pano ndi pafupifupi 10% yokha, ndi malo akuluakulu okula komanso kuthekera kokukula.
2. Mkhalidwe wa Msika ndi Mavuto
Ngakhale kuti malamulo akusintha, msika wa ma PV apakhomo ukukumana ndi mavuto ambiri. Kumbali imodzi, chifukwa cha kuchepa pang'onopang'ono kwa mphamvu yolumikizidwa ndi gridi komanso kukula mwachangu kwa mphamvu yoyikidwa ya ma PV ogawidwa, madera ena akumana ndi mavuto ogwiritsa ntchito. Malinga ndi deta ya National Energy Board, kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2023, m'maboma asanu ndi limodzi oyesera omwe amachita kuwunika mphamvu yonyamula ma PV ogawidwa ku gridi, pali mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya mavuto ogwiritsa ntchito. Kumbali ina, PV yogawidwa ikatenga nawo mbali mu malonda okhudzana ndi msika, ogwira ntchito zamagetsi ayenera kukumana ndi malo ovuta kwambiri pamsika komanso kukakamizidwa kwa mpikisano. Malinga ndi China Photovoltaic Industry Association, kuyambira kumapeto kwa Seputembala 2024, mphamvu yoyikidwa yonse ya ma PV ogawidwa idafika pa ma kilowatts 340 miliyoni, zomwe zimapangitsa 44% ya mphamvu yonse yoyikidwa ya ma PV. Ndi kukula kosalekeza kwa mphamvu yoyikidwa, mpikisano wamsika udzakhala wolimba kwambiri, ndipo ogwira ntchito zamagetsi ayenera kupitiliza kukonza luso lawo logwira ntchito komanso kuyang'anira zoopsa. Kuphatikiza apo, msika wa ma PV a m'nyumba ukukumananso ndi mavuto monga kukweza ukadaulo, kuchepetsa ndalama, ndi mavuto azachuma. Komabe, chifukwa cha kupita patsogolo kwa ukadaulo komanso kuthandizira kosalekeza kwa mfundo, mavutowa akuthetsedwa pang'onopang'ono. Mwachitsanzo, m'zaka zaposachedwa, mtengo wa magetsi a ma PV a m'nyumba wapitirira kutsika, ndipo chiŵerengero cha mitengo ndi magwiridwe antchito chapitirira kukwera, zomwe zalimbikitsa kufalikira kwa msika ndi anthu ambiri. Nthawi yomweyo, boma lakhazikitsanso ndondomeko zingapo zothandizira ndalama zothandizira mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono ndi apakatikati (SMEs) ndi alimi kuthetsa mavuto awo azachuma.
3. Kukula kwa chitukuko ndi chidaliro
Ngakhale msika wa ma PV apakhomo ukukumana ndi mavuto ambiri, chitukuko cha makampani chikadali chabwino. Kukula kosalekeza kwa mphamvu yoyika: Malinga ndi deta yaposachedwa yomwe yatulutsidwa ndi China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), m'miyezi 10 yoyambirira ya chaka chino, mphamvu yoyika ya ma PV ku China inali 181.3 gigawatts (GW), kukula kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa 27.27%. Pakati pawo, mphamvu yogawa ya photovoltaic ndi yabwino kwambiri, mphamvu yonse yoyika ya 96 GW, yomwe ndi 52.97%. Malonda a satifiketi yobiriwira yamagetsi akukula kwambiri: satifiketi yobiriwira imatha kuzindikira kuyesedwa kwa magetsi ongowonjezwdwa komanso kuyimira gawo la chilengedwe la gawo lamagetsi lopangidwa ndi mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa. Malinga ndi deta ya National Development and Reform Commission, kuyambira Januwale mpaka Ogasiti 2024, mphamvu yogulitsa magetsi obiriwira ku China idafika 177.5 biliyoni kWh, kukwera ndi 223% pachaka; malonda a satifiketi yobiriwira adapitilira 200 miliyoni, kukwera pafupifupi kasanu pachaka.
Chidaliro cha msika chikuwonjezeka pang'onopang'ono. Ngakhale kusintha kwa mfundo kwawonjezera kusatsimikizika kwa msika kwakanthawi kochepa, pakapita nthawi, mfundo yokhazikika komanso yogawa sikunasinthe, ndipo msika uli ndi malo okhazikika okulira. Malinga ndi zomwe zanenedweratu ndi International Energy Agency (IEA), pofika chaka cha 2030, magetsi ogawa adzawonjezeka kuchokera pa 694.4GW yomwe ilipo pano kufika pa 2,353.5GW, zomwe zikuyembekezeka kuti chitukuko cha makampani chikukula.
Ma PV a padenga la nyumba akukwaniritsa chitukuko mwachangu, kufunikira kukupitilirabe kutulutsidwa, ndipo misika yatsopano ya gigawatt ikupitilira kuonekera. Kukula kwa mphamvu zopangira magetsi a PV a padenga la nyumba ku Jiangsu ndi Anhui kunali 6.7 GW ndi 3.1 GW motsatana, ndipo mphamvu zopangira magetsi a PV a padenga la nyumba ku Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Liaoning, Zhejiang ndi madera ena kwaphwanya GW.
Kuphatikiza apo, chifukwa cha kupita patsogolo kwa ukadaulo komanso kuchepetsa ndalama, kugwiritsa ntchito bwino magetsi a PV m'nyumba kudzawonjezeka. Mwachitsanzo, m'zaka zaposachedwa, mtengo wa magetsi a PV m'nyumba wapitirira kuchepa, zomwe zapangitsa alimi ndi mabizinesi ambiri kukhala ndi ndalama zoyikira. Nthawi yomweyo, boma lakhazikitsanso mfundo zingapo zothandizira, monga zolimbikitsira misonkho ndi ndalama zothandizira, zomwe zikupititsa patsogolo kutchuka ndi kuchuluka kwa msika wa PV m'nyumba.
Mtsogolomu, magetsi opangidwa ndi dzuwa omwe amagawidwa m'maulimi ndi m'madera akumidzi, mayendedwe, zomangamanga ndi madera ena ogwiritsidwa ntchito adzapitirizabe kukulirakulira, ndipo kuphatikiza ndi chitukuko cha mafakitale osiyanasiyana kudzakhala pafupi, ndipo kudzalumikizidwa kwambiri ndi malo osungira mphamvu, gridi yanzeru ndi ukadaulo wina kuti apange chitukuko chogwirizana.
"Micro-grid yakhala njira yofunika kwambiri yowonjezerera mphamvu yonyamulira ndi kugwiritsa ntchito kwa gridi yogawa ndikuthetsa kayendetsedwe kokhazikika ka mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa zogawidwa pansi pa dongosolo latsopano lamagetsi." Pa Smart Energy Forum, Sun Shumin, katswiri wamkulu wa State Grid, adayang'ana kwambiri pakukula kwa ma grid ang'onoang'ono. Masiku ano, malo ambiri adzakhazikitsa machitidwe ongowonjezwdwa pomanga ma grid ang'onoang'ono. Mwachitsanzo, m'malo opanda mpweya woipa, magetsi obiriwira onse, kupanga zinthu mogwirizana ndi zofunikira za tariff ya carbon, komanso kuchepetsa misonkho ya carbon, kukonza mpikisano wazinthu, zomwe zidzakhala malo ofunikira pamsika mtsogolo mwa zomangamanga zatsopano zamagetsi.
Mtsogolomu, magetsi opangidwa ndi dzuwa omwe amagawidwa mu ulimi ndi madera akumidzi, mayendedwe, zomangamanga ndi madera ena ogwiritsidwa ntchito adzapitirizabe kuzama, ndipo kuphatikiza kwa chitukuko cha mafakitale osiyanasiyana kudzakhala pafupi kwambiri, kudzakhala ndi kusungira mphamvu, gridi yanzeru ndi ukadaulo wina mozama, kupangidwa kwa chitukuko chophatikizidwa. Ikhozanso kupangidwa kudzera munjira yonse yamudzi, kusintha netiweki yoyambirira yogawa kumidzi, kuzindikira chitukuko chapakati, kapangidwe, zomangamanga, ntchito ndi kukonza, kasamalidwe ndi kulumikizana kwa gridi yamagetsi yamagetsi, kupanga mayankho anzeru a micro-grid, ndikukwaniritsa kuphatikiza kwa chitukuko, kugawa, kugwiritsa ntchito (kuchaja) ndi malamulo osungira kudzera mu malo owerengera anzeru kuti alole PV yapakhomo kuchita gawo lalikulu pazabwino, ndikuwonjezera kukhazikika kwa dongosolo lake, kusintha ndi mulingo wanzeru.
Ponseponse, pakupanga pulojekiti yogawa mphamvu ya photovoltaic, bizinesi yamtsogolo iyenera kuyang'ana kwambiri mfundo zinayi: yoyamba ndi kutenga nawo mbali pamsika wamagetsi motsatira malamulo oyenera a boma; yachiwiri ndi kukweza ukadaulo wazidziwitso za polojekitiyi, kusintha kwa digito, mulingo wanzeru, kukwaniritsa zomwe zikuwoneka, zoyezeka, zosinthika, zowongolera; zitatu ndi kulumikizana kwapakati ndi gridi kumatha kukonza mphamvu yonyamula ya gridi; zinayi ndikusintha malo, kuyang'ana kwambiri ntchito zoyang'anira mphamvu, kukweza ndi kukweza makina akunja kwa gridi, ndi zina zotero.
Poyang'ana mtsogolo, tili ndi chifukwa chokhulupirira kuti makampani opanga magetsi a m'nyumba adzabweretsa tsogolo labwino. Ndi kufulumizitsa kusintha kwa mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi komanso lingaliro la "kabotolo kawiri", magetsi a m'nyumba, monga choyimira chofunikira cha mphamvu zoyera, adzabweretsa malo okulirapo otukuka. Nthawi yomweyo, ndi kupita patsogolo kosalekeza kwa ukadaulo ndi chithandizo cha mfundo, kugwiritsa ntchito bwino ndalama kwa mafakitale opanga magetsi a m'nyumba kudzawongoleredwa kwambiri, zomwe zidzalimbikitsa kufalikira kwa msika ndi anthu ambiri.
