Mu myaka ya vuba aha, PV zo mu ngo, nk'igice cy'ingenzi mu mpinduka mu by'ingufu mu Bushinwa, zagize iterambere ryihuse kuva ku ntangiriro, kuva ku ntege nke kugera ku ikomeye. Bitewe n'impinduka mu miterere ya politiki n'ihindagurika ry'ibikenewe ku isoko, inganda za PV zo mu ngo nazo zihura n'imbogamizi n'amahirwe menshi.
1. Impinduka ku isoko rishingiye kuri politiki
Mu myaka ya vuba aha, Ikigo cy’Igihugu gishinzwe Ingufu (NEA) cyashyizeho politiki nyinshi zo gushyigikira cyane iterambere ry’isoko rya PV mu ngo. 2024 Mu Ukwakira, NEA yasohoye "Ingamba z’Ubuyobozi zo Guteza Imbere no Kubaka Ingufu za Fotovoltaic Zikwirakwizwa (Exposure Draft)" (zizwi ku izina rya "Exposure Draft"), zigaragaza neza mu ngingo ya 36 ko imishinga yo kubyaza amashanyarazi ya Fotovoltaic ikwirakwizwa igomba kugira uruhare mu isoko ry’amashanyarazi hakurikijwe ingingo zibishinzwe za leta, zigaragaza ko voltaic y’urugo "igeze ku isoko" yararangiye. Iri hinduka rya politiki rifite ingaruka zikomeye ku isoko rya PV mu ngo. Dukurikije imibare y’Ikigo cy’Igihugu gishinzwe Ingufu, ubushobozi bwa PV mu ngo mu 2023 bwageze kuri 43.48GW, urwego rwo hejuru cyane. Ariko, bitewe n’izamuka ryihuse ry’ingufu za PV zikwirakwizwa, hari uduce twagaragaye nk’ikibazo cy’ikoreshwa ry’amashanyarazi. Ishyirwaho rya "Exposure Draft" rigamije kuyobora uburyo bwo kubona PV ikwirakwizwa mu buryo bukwiye no gukoresha neza amashanyarazi binyuze mu buryo bushingiye ku isoko, no guteza imbere uburyo bwiza bwo gutanga ingufu z'amashanyarazi. Byongeye kandi, "Exposure Draft" ku nshuro ya mbere isobanutse neza nk'ubwoko bw'umushinga "w'umuryango utari uw'umuntu usanzwe", iha uburenganzira bw'umuntu utari uw'umuntu usanzwe bwo gutanga imishinga y'urugo, gukemura ikibazo cy'ishoramari ry'umushinga w'urugo mu gihe kirekire ndetse n'ikibazo cy'ikibazo kidasobanutse. Nk'uko byagaragajwe, isoko rya PV mu ngo mu Bushinwa rifite ubushobozi bunini bwa 1600GW, biteganijwe ko rigomba gushyiraho ibisenge bya PV birenga miliyoni 80 by'urugo, igipimo cy'ubwinjirire muri iki gihe ni hafi 10% gusa, hamwe n'umwanya munini wo gukura no guteza imbere.
2. Imiterere y'Isoko n'Ingorane
Nubwo politiki ikomeje kunozwa, isoko rya PV mu ngo riracyahura n’imbogamizi nyinshi. Ku ruhande rumwe, bitewe no kugabanuka buhoro buhoro k’ubushobozi buhuza amashanyarazi n’iterambere ryihuse ry’ubushobozi bwa PV bukwirakwira, uturere tumwe na tumwe twahuye n’ibibazo by’ikoreshwa ry’amashanyarazi. Nk’uko amakuru aturuka ku Kigo cy’Igihugu gishinzwe Ingufu abigaragaza, mu mpera za 2023, mu ntara esheshatu z’igerageza zikora isuzuma ry’ubushobozi bwa PV bukwirakwira mu ikoranabuhanga, hari ibibazo bitandukanye by’ikoreshwa ry’amashanyarazi. Ku rundi ruhande, nyuma y’uko PV ikwirakwira mu bucuruzi bushingiye ku isoko, abakora uruganda rw’amashanyarazi bagomba guhangana n’ibidukikije bigoye ku isoko ndetse n’igitutu cyo guhangana. Nk’uko bivugwa n’Ishyirahamwe ry’Inganda z’Ubushinwa rishinzwe ihindagurika ry’ikirere, kugeza mu mpera za Nzeri 2024, ubushobozi bwa PV bukwirakwira bwageze kuri kilowati miliyoni 340, bungana na 44% by’ubushobozi bwose bwa PV bukwirakwira. Hamwe no kwaguka gukomeye kw’ubushobozi bwashyizweho, ipiganwa ku isoko rizarushaho kwiyongera, kandi abakora uruganda rw’amashanyarazi bagomba gukomeza kunoza ubushobozi bwabo bwo gukora no gucunga ibyago. Byongeye kandi, isoko rya PV mu ngo rihura n'ibibazo nko kuvugurura ikoranabuhanga, kugabanya ikiguzi, n'ibibazo by'imari. Ariko, bitewe n'iterambere rikomeje mu ikoranabuhanga no gushyigikira politiki, ibi bibazo birimo gukemurwa buhoro buhoro. Urugero, mu myaka ya vuba aha, ikiguzi cy'inganda z'amashanyarazi za PV mu ngo cyakomeje kugabanuka, kandi igipimo cy'ibiciro n'imikorere cyakomeje kwiyongera, byateje imbere gukwirakwira kw'isoko n'abaturage benshi. Muri icyo gihe, guverinoma yanashyizeho gahunda zitandukanye zo gushyigikira inkunga kugira ngo ifashe ibigo bito n'ibiciriritse (SMEs) n'abahinzi gukemura ibibazo byabo by'imari.
3. Iterambere ry'iterambere n'icyizere
Nubwo isoko rya PV mu ngo rihura n’ibibazo byinshi, iterambere ry’inganda riracyari ryiza. Iterambere rihoraho mu bushobozi bwo gushyiraho: Dukurikije imibare iheruka yashyizwe ahagaragara n’Ishyirahamwe ry’Inganda za Photovoltaic mu Bushinwa (CPIA), mu mezi 10 ya mbere y’uyu mwaka, ubushobozi bwo gushyiraho PV mu Bushinwa bwageze kuri gigawati 181.3 (GW), izamuka rya 27.27% umwaka ku mwaka. Muri byo, umusanzu wa photovoltaic ukwirakwira ni mwiza cyane, ubushobozi bwose bwashyizweho bwa 96 GW, bungana na 52.97%. Ubucuruzi bw’impamyabumenyi y’ibidukikije burimo kwiyongera: impamyabushobozi z’ibidukikije zishobora gupima ingufu zisubira kandi zigahagararira umusanzu w’ibidukikije w’ingufu zisubira. Dukurikije imibare ya Komisiyo y’Igihugu Ishinzwe Iterambere n’Ivugurura, kuva muri Mutarama kugeza muri Kanama 2024, ingufu z’ubucuruzi bw’ingufu zisubira mu Bushinwa zageze kuri miliyari 177.5 kWh, ziyongereyeho 223% umwaka ku mwaka; ubucuruzi bw’impamyabumenyi y’ibidukikije bwarenze miliyoni 200, ziyongereyeho hafi inshuro eshanu umwaka ku mwaka.
Icyizere cy’isoko kirimo kwiyongera buhoro buhoro. Nubwo impinduka za politiki zongereye ikibazo cy’isoko mu gihe gito, mu gihe kirekire, ihame ryo gushyira hamwe no gukwirakwiza ntabwo rihinduka, kandi isoko rifite umwanya uhamye wo gukura. Dukurikije ibyari byateganijwe n’Ikigo Mpuzamahanga Gishinzwe Ingufu (IEA), mu 2030, PV ikwirakwizwa iziyongera kuva kuri 694.4GW ubu ikagera kuri 2,353.5GW, amahirwe yo guteza imbere inganda ateganijwe rwose.
PV yo mu ngo ikora ku gisenge cy’amazu iratera imbere byihuse, icyifuzo gikomeje gutangwa, kandi amasoko mashya yo ku rwego rwa gigawatt akomeje kugaragara. Igipimo cy’amashanyarazi ya PV yo mu ngo ikoreshwa mu ku gisenge cy’amazu muri Jiangsu na Anhui cyageze kuri 6.7 GW na 3.1 GW uko bikurikirana, kandi ubushobozi bwo gukoresha PV yo mu ngo ikoreshwa mu ku gisenge cy’amazu muri Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Liaoning, Zhejiang n’izindi ntara bwagabanyije GW.
Byongeye kandi, bitewe n’iterambere rihoraho ry’ikoranabuhanga no kugabanya ikiguzi, uburyo amashanyarazi akoreshwa mu ngo azagenda arushaho kwiyongera. Urugero, mu myaka ya vuba aha, ikiguzi cy’inganda zikoresha amashanyarazi akoreshwa mu ngo cyakomeje kugabanuka, bituma abahinzi n’ibigo byinshi bashobora kwishyura ikiguzi cyo gushyiraho. Muri icyo gihe kandi, leta yanashyizeho gahunda zitandukanye zishyigikira, nko gutanga imisoro n’inkunga y’imari, birushaho guteza imbere kwamamaza no gukwirakwiza isoko ry’amashanyarazi akoreshwa mu ngo.
Mu gihe kiri imbere, ingufu z’amashanyarazi zikwirakwizwa mu buhinzi no mu cyaro, mu gutwara abantu n’ibintu, mu bwubatsi no mu zindi nzego zikoreshwa nabyo bizakomeza kwiyongera, kandi guhuza no guteza imbere inganda zitandukanye bizarushaho kuba hafi, kandi bizahuzwa cyane n’ububiko bw’ingufu, ikoranabuhanga rigezweho n’irindi koranabuhanga kugira ngo habeho iterambere rihuriweho.
"Micro-grid yabaye uburyo bw'ingenzi bwo kunoza ubushobozi bwo gutwara n'ubushobozi bwo gukoresha grid yo gukwirakwiza no gukemura imikorere ihamye y'ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa zikwirakwizwa muri sisitemu nshya y'ingufu." Mu nama y'ingufu nziza, Sun Shumin, impuguke nkuru ya State Grid, yibanze ku iterambere rya micro-grid. Muri iki gihe, ahantu henshi hazaba hashyirwaho sisitemu zishobora kuvugururwa mu gihe cyo kubaka imiyoboro mito. Urugero, muri pariki ya zero-carbon, amashanyarazi ahumanya ikirere, gukora ibicuruzwa bijyanye n'ibiciro bya karuboni, ariko nanone kugabanya imisoro ya karuboni, kunoza ipiganwa ry'ibicuruzwa, bizaba isoko rikomeye mu gihe kizaza cy'inyubako nshya z'ingufu.
Mu gihe kizaza, ingufu z'amashanyarazi zikwirakwizwa mu buhinzi no mu cyaro, mu gutwara abantu n'ibintu, mu bwubatsi no mu bindi bice by'ikoreshwa nabyo bizakomeza kwiyongera, kandi guhuza iterambere ry'inganda zitandukanye bizarushaho kuba hafi, bizaba hamwe no kubika ingufu, ikoranabuhanga rigezweho n'izindi koranabuhanga mu buryo bwimbitse, gushyiraho iterambere rihuriweho. Bishobora kandi gutezwa imbere binyuze mu buryo bwose bw'umudugudu, guhindura umuyoboro w'amashanyarazi wa mbere mu cyaro, gushyira mu bikorwa iterambere, igishushanyo mbonera, kubaka, imikorere no kubungabunga, gucunga no guhuza amashanyarazi afite ingufu nyinshi, kubaka ibisubizo by'amashanyarazi aciriritse, no guhuza iterambere, gukwirakwiza, gukoresha (gutanga) no kubika binyuze mu kigo cy'ikoranabuhanga kugira ngo PV yo mu ngo igire uruhare runini mu nyungu, no kongera uburyo bwayo bwo guhagarara, guhindura no kugena urwego rw'ubwenge.
Muri rusange, mu iterambere ry’umushinga w’amashanyarazi akomoka kuri photovoltaic, ubucuruzi bw’ejo hazaza bugomba kwibanda ku ngingo enye: imwe ni ukugira uruhare mu isoko ry’amashanyarazi hakurikijwe ingingo za leta zijyanye nabyo; ebyiri ni uguteza imbere ikoranabuhanga ry’amakuru mu mushinga, gukoresha ikoranabuhanga, urwego rw’ubwenge, kugera ku buryo bugaragara, bupimwe, bushobora guhindurwa, bugenzurwa; eshatu ni uguhuza amashanyarazi n’amashanyarazi bishobora kunoza ubushobozi bwo gutwara amashanyarazi; enye ni uguhindura aho aherereye, kwibanda kuri serivisi zo gucunga ingufu, kuvugurura no kuvugurura sisitemu yo mu bwoko bwa off-grid, n'ibindi.
Dutegereje imbere, dufite impamvu zo kwizera ko inganda zikora PV mu ngo zizazana ejo hazaza heza. Bitewe no kwihutisha impinduka mu ihindagurika ry’ingufu ku isi no gushyiraho intego ya "karubone ebyiri", PV mu ngo, nk'ikintu cy'ingenzi gihagarariye ingufu zisukuye, izazana iterambere ryagutse. Muri icyo gihe, hamwe n'iterambere rihoraho ry'ikoranabuhanga n'inkunga ya politiki, uburyo inganda zikora PV mu ngo zizarushaho kunozwa, bigateza imbere isoko n'abaturage benshi.
