Eminyakeni yamuva nje, i-PV yasekhaya, njengengxenye ebalulekile yokuguqulwa kwamandla eShayina, ibhekane nentuthuko esheshayo kusukela ekuqaleni, kusukela ebuthaka kuya kobuqinile. Njengoba kunezinguquko endaweni yenqubomgomo kanye nokuguquguquka kwesidingo semakethe, imboni ye-PV yasekhaya nayo ibhekene nezinselele eziningi namathuba.
1. Ushintsho lwemakethe oluqhutshwa yinqubomgomo
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, i-National Energy Administration (NEA) ikhiphe izinqubomgomo eziningana ukuze inikeze ukwesekwa okuqinile ekuthuthukisweni kwemakethe ye-PV yasekhaya.2024 Ngo-Okthoba, i-NEA ikhiphe "Izinyathelo Zokuphatha Zokuthuthukiswa Nokwakhiwa Kokukhiqizwa Kwamandla E-Photovoltaic Okusatshalaliswa (Uhlaka Lokuchayeka)" olubuyekeziwe (olubizwa ngokuthi "Uhlaka Lokuchayeka"), olukwenza kucace ku-Athikili 36 ukuthi amaphrojekthi okukhiqizwa kwamandla e-photovoltaic asakazwayo adinga ukuhlanganyela emakethe kagesi ngokuhambisana nezinhlinzeko ezifanele zombuso, okuphawula ukuthi i-photovoltaic yasekhaya "ingene emakethe" isiqediwe. Lolu shintsho lwenqubomgomo lunomthelela omkhulu emakethe ye-PV yasekhaya. Ngokusho kwedatha ye-National Energy Board, umthamo ofakiwe we-PV yasekhaya ka-2023 ufinyelele ku-43.48GW, okuyirekhodi eliphezulu. Kodwa-ke, ngokukhula okusheshayo kwesilinganiso sokufakwa kwe-PV okusatshalaliswa, ezinye izindawo ziye zavela njengenkinga yokusebenzisa. Ukwethulwa kwe-"Exposure Draft" kuhloswe ukuqondisa ukufinyelela okunengqondo kwe-PV esatshalaliswayo kanye nokusetshenziswa kahle kukagesi ngezindlela ezisekelwe emakethe, kanye nokukhuthaza ukwabiwa kahle kwezinsizakusebenza zikagesi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-"Exposure Draft" nayo okokuqala ngqa uhlobo lwephrojekthi "yomuntu ongeyena owemvelo" ecacile, enikeza umuntu ongeyena owemvelo amalungelo okufaka iphrojekthi yomndeni, ukuxazulula isihloko sokutshalwa kwezimali kwephrojekthi yomndeni yesikhathi eside kanye nesihloko sokufakwa kwenkinga engaguquki. Ngokusho kokulinganisa, imakethe ye-PV yomndeni yaseShayina inamandla amakhulu angaphezu kwe-1600GW, kulindeleke ukuthi ifake uphahla lwe-PV yomndeni olungaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-80, izinga lokungena lamanje licishe libe yi-10% kuphela, elinendawo enkulu yokukhula kanye nekhono lokuthuthukiswa.
2. Isimo Semakethe Nezinselele
Naphezu kokwenziwa ngcono kwesimo senqubomgomo, imakethe ye-PV yasekhaya isabhekene nezinselelo eziningi. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngokuncipha kancane kancane kwamandla axhunywe kugridi kanye nokukhula okusheshayo kwamandla afakiwe e-PV esatshalaliswa, ezinye izifunda ziye zabhekana nezinkinga zokusetshenziswa. Ngokusho kwedatha ye-National Energy Board, ekupheleni kuka-2023, ezifundazweni eziyisithupha zokuhlola ezenza ukuhlolwa kwamandla okuthwala ukufinyelela kwe-PV esatshalaliswa kugridi, kunezinkinga ezahlukene zokusetshenziswa. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngemva kokuba i-PV esatshalaliswa ihlanganyele ekuhwebeni okugxile emakethe, abaqhubi bezitshalo zamandla kudingeka babhekane nendawo yemakethe eyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu kanye nengcindezi yokuncintisana. Ngokusho kwe-China Photovoltaic Industry Association, kusukela ekupheleni kukaSepthemba 2024, amandla afakiwe ahlanganisiwe e-PV esatshalaliswa afinyelele kuma-kilowatts ayizigidi ezingu-340, okwenza u-44% wamandla afakiwe e-PV. Ngokukhula okuqhubekayo kwamandla afakiwe, umncintiswano wemakethe uzoba mkhulu kakhulu, futhi abaqhubi bezitshalo zamandla kudingeka bathuthukise njalo amakhono abo okusebenza nokuphatha ingozi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, imakethe ye-PV yasekhaya nayo ibhekene nezinkinga ezifana nokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe, ukwehliswa kwezindleko, kanye nobunzima bezezimali. Kodwa-ke, ngentuthuko eqhubekayo yobuchwepheshe kanye nokusekelwa okuqhubekayo kwezinqubomgomo, lezi zinkinga ziyaxazululwa kancane kancane. Isibonelo, eminyakeni yamuva nje, izindleko zezitshalo zikagesi ze-PV zasekhaya ziqhubekile nokwehla, kanti isilinganiso sentengo nokusebenza siqhubeke nokuthuthuka, okuye kwakhuthaza ukuthandwa kwemakethe kanye nobuningi. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, uhulumeni uphinde wethula uchungechunge lwezinqubomgomo zokusekela ngezimali ukusiza amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo (ama-SME) kanye nabalimi ukuxazulula izinkinga zabo zezezimali.
3. Intuthuko kanye nokuzethemba
Nakuba imakethe ye-PV yasekhaya ibhekene nezinselelo eziningi, ukuthambekela kwentuthuko yale mboni kusekuhle. Ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwamandla afakiwe: Ngokusho kwedatha yakamuva ekhishwe yi-China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), ezinyangeni eziyi-10 zokuqala zalo nyaka, amandla afakiwe okukhiqizwa kwamandla e-PV eShayina afinyelele kuma-gigawatts ayi-181.3 (GW), ukukhula konyaka nonyaka okungu-27.27%. Phakathi kwazo, umnikelo we-photovoltaic osatshalaliswayo uvelele, amandla afakiwe angu-96 GW, alinganiselwa ku-52.97%. Ukuhweba ngesitifiketi se-green power green kuyanda: izitifiketi eziluhlaza zingabona ukulinganisa kukagesi wamandla avuselelekayo futhi zimelele umnikelo wemvelo womoya weyunithi kagesi ekhiqizwa amandla avuselelekayo. Ngokusho kwedatha ye-National Development and Reform Commission, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Agasti 2024, amandla okuhweba ngamandla aluhlaza eShayina afinyelele ku-177.5 billion kWh, akhuphuke ngo-223% unyaka nonyaka; ukuhweba ngesitifiketi se-green certificate kudlule izigidi ezingu-200, akhuphuke cishe kahlanu unyaka nonyaka.
Ukuzethemba kwemakethe kuyanda kancane kancane. Nakuba izinguquko zenqubomgomo zikhulise ukungaqiniseki kwemakethe esikhathini esifushane, esikhathini eside, isimiso sokuhlukaniswa kanye nokusatshalaliswa asikashintshi, futhi imakethe inendawo yokukhula ezinzile. Ngokusho kwesibikezelo se-International Energy Agency (IEA), ngo-2030, i-PV esatshalaliswayo izokhuphuka isuka ku-694.4GW yamanje iye ku-2,353.5GW, amathuba okuthuthukiswa kwemboni alindelwe ngokugcwele.
I-PV yophahla lwasekhaya ithola intuthuko esheshayo, isidingo siyaqhubeka nokukhishwa, futhi izimakethe ezintsha zezinga le-gigawatt ziyaqhubeka nokuvela. Isikali esifakiwe sokukhiqizwa kukagesi we-PV yophahla lwasekhaya eJiangsu nase-Anhui sifinyelele ku-6.7 GW kanye no-3.1 GW ngokulandelana, kanti amandla afakiwe okukhiqizwa kukagesi we-PV yophahla lwasekhaya eShandong, eShanxi, eHebei, eLiaoning, eZhejiang nakwezinye izifundazwe aphule i-GW.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngentuthuko eqhubekayo yobuchwepheshe kanye nokunciphisa izindleko, ukusebenza kahle kwesitshalo sikagesi se-PV sasekhaya kuzothuthukiswa kakhulu. Isibonelo, eminyakeni yamuva nje, izindleko zezitshalo zikagesi ze-PV zokuhlala ziqhubekile nokwehla, okwenza abalimi abaningi namabhizinisi bakwazi ukukhokhela izindleko zokufaka. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, uhulumeni wethule nochungechunge lwezinqubomgomo ezisekelayo, njengezikhuthazo zentela kanye nezibonelelo zezimali, okukhuthaza kakhulu ukuthandwa kanye nokwanda kwemakethe ye-PV yasekhaya.
Esikhathini esizayo, i-photovoltaic esatshalaliswa kwezolimo nasezindaweni zasemakhaya, ezokuthutha, ezokwakha kanye nezinye izindawo zokusetshenziswa nazo zizoqhubeka nokujula, futhi ukuhlanganiswa nokuthuthukiswa kwezimboni ezahlukene kuzoba seduze, futhi kuzohlanganiswa ngokujulile nokugcinwa kwamandla, igridi ehlakaniphile kanye nobunye ubuchwepheshe ukuze kwakheke intuthuko ehlanganisiwe.
"I-Micro-grid isibe yindlela ebalulekile yokuthuthukisa umthamo wokuthwala kanye nomthamo wokusetshenziswa kwegridi yokusabalalisa kanye nokuxazulula ukusebenza okuzinzile kwamandla avuselelekayo asatshalaliswa ngaphansi kohlelo olusha lwamandla." E-Smart Energy Forum, uSun Shumin, uchwepheshe oyinhloko weGridi Yombuso, ugxile ekuthuthukisweni kwamagridi amancane. Namuhla, izindawo eziningi zizohlela izinhlelo ezivuselelekayo lapho zakha amagridi amancane. Isibonelo, epaki elingenayo ikhabhoni, konke ugesi oluhlaza, ukukhiqizwa kwemikhiqizo ngokuhambisana nezidingo zentela yekhabhoni, kodwa futhi kunciphisa intela yekhabhoni, kuthuthukise ukuncintisana komkhiqizo, okuzoba yindawo eshisayo emakethe esikhathini esizayo sokwakhiwa kwamandla amasha.
Esikhathini esizayo, i-photovoltaic esatshalaliswa kwezolimo nasezindaweni zasemakhaya, ezokuthutha, ezokwakha kanye nezinye izindawo zohlelo lokusebenza nazo zizoqhubeka nokujula, futhi ukuhlanganiswa kokuthuthukiswa kwezimboni ezahlukene kuzoba eduze kakhulu, kuzoba nokugcinwa kwamandla, igridi ehlakaniphile kanye nobuchwepheshe obunye obuhlanganisiwe ngokujulile, ukwakheka kwentuthuko ehlanganisiwe. Ingathuthukiswa futhi ngemodi yonke yedolobhana, iguqule inethiwekhi yokusabalalisa yokuqala emaphandleni, iqaphele intuthuko ephakathi, ukuklama, ukwakha, ukusebenza kanye nokugcinwa, ukuphathwa kanye nokuxhumeka kwegridi enamandla kagesi yesiteshi samandla, ukwakha izixazululo zegridi encane ehlakaniphile enezimo eziningi, kanye nokufeza ukuhlanganiswa kokuthuthukiswa, ukusatshalaliswa, ukusetshenziswa (ukushaja) kanye nokulawulwa okunamandla kokugcina ngesikhungo sokuhlela esihlakaniphile ukuvumela i-PV yasekhaya ukuthi idlale indima enkulu ezinzuzweni, kanye nokuthuthukisa ukuzinza kohlelo lwayo, ukulungiswa kanye nezinga elihlakaniphile.
Sekukonke, ekuthuthukisweni kwephrojekthi yokukhiqizwa kwamandla kagesi e-photovoltaic esatshalaliswayo, ibhizinisi lesikhathi esizayo kufanele ligxile emaphuzwini amane: elilodwa ukubamba iqhaza emakethe yamandla ngokuhambisana nezinhlinzeko ezifanele zombuso; elesibili ukuthuthukisa ubuchwepheshe bolwazi lwephrojekthi, ukwenziwa kwedijithali, izinga lobuhlakani, ukufeza okubonakalayo, okulinganisekayo, okulungisekayo, okulawulwayo; elesithathu ukuhlangana okuphakathi kanye negridi kungathuthukisa amandla okuthwala igridi; elesine ukushintsha indawo, ukugxila ezinsizakalweni zokuphathwa kwamandla, ukuthuthukisa nokuthuthukisa uhlelo lohlobo olungaphandle kwegridi, njalo njalo.
Uma sibheka phambili, sinesizathu sokukholelwa ukuthi imboni ye-PV yasekhaya izoletha ikusasa elingcono. Ngokusheshiswa kokuguquka kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele kanye nesiphakamiso somgomo "wekhabhoni ephindwe kabili", i-PV yasekhaya, njengommeleli obalulekile wamandla ahlanzekile, izoletha indawo ebanzi yentuthuko. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngentuthuko eqhubekayo yobuchwepheshe kanye nokusekelwa kwenqubomgomo, ukusebenza kahle kwezitshalo zamandla ze-PV zasekhaya kuzothuthukiswa kakhulu, kukhuthaze ukuthandwa kwemakethe kanye nobuningi.
