I ngā tau tata nei, ko te hiko PV o ngā whare, hei wāhanga nui o te huringa pūngao o Haina, kua tere te whanaketanga mai i te tīmatanga, mai i te ngoikore ki te kaha. I te mea kua huri te taiao kaupapa here me te piki me te heke o te tono mākete, kei te aro atu hoki te umanga hiko PV o ngā whare ki ngā wero me ngā whai wāhitanga maha.
1. Te huringa mākete e ārahihia ana e te kaupapa here
I ngā tau tata nei, kua whakaputa te National Energy Administration (NEA) i ētahi kaupapa here hei tautoko i te whanaketanga o te mākete PV o ngā whare. 2024 I te marama o Oketopa, i whakaputa te NEA i ngā "Mea Whakahaere mō te Whakawhanaketanga me te Hanganga o te Whakaputa Hiko Photovoltaic Tohatoha (Tauira Whakaaturanga)" kua whakahoutia (e kiia nei ko te "Tauira Whakaaturanga"), e whakamārama ana i roto i te Tuhinga 36 me whai wāhi ngā kaupapa whakaputa hiko photovoltaic tohatoha ki te mākete hiko i runga anō i ngā whakaritenga e tika ana o te kawanatanga, e tohu ana kua oti te "whakaurunga" o te photovoltaic whare. He pānga whānui tēnei huringa kaupapa here ki te mākete PV o ngā whare. E ai ki ngā raraunga a te Poari Hiko o te Motu, i te tau 2023, kua eke te kaha tāuta PV o ngā whare ki te 43.48GW, he rekoata teitei rawa atu. Heoi, nā te tere o te tipu o te tauine tāutanga PV tohatoha, kua puta ake ētahi wāhi hei raruraru kai. Ko te whakaurunga o te "Exposure Draft" he mea hei ārahi i te urunga tika ki te PV tohatoha me te whakamahinga pai o te hiko mā roto i ngā tikanga e ahu mai ana i te mākete, me te whakatairanga i te tohatoha pai o ngā rauemi hiko. Hei tāpiri, ko te "Exposure Draft" hoki mō te wā tuatahi he momo kaupapa "kāinga tangata ehara i te tangata tūturu", e hoatu ana ki te tangata ehara i te tangata tūturu ngā mana tuku kaupapa kāinga, ki te whakaoti i te kaupapa haumitanga whare mō te wā roa me te kaupapa tuku o te raruraru koretake. E ai ki ngā whakatau tata, he nui te kaha o te mākete PV whare o Haina neke atu i te 1600GW, e matapaetia ana ka tāutahia neke atu i te 80 miriona tuanui PV whare, ko te tere urunga o nāianei he tata ki te 10% noa iho, me te nui o te wāhi tipu me te kaha whanaketanga.
2. Te Tūnga me ngā Wero o te Mākete
Ahakoa te arotautanga o te taiao kaupapa here, kei te aro tonu te mākete PV o ngā whare ki ngā wero maha. I tētahi taha, me te whakahekenga āta haere o te kaha hono-pūnaha me te tipu tere o te kaha tāuta PV tohatoha, kua pāngia ētahi rohe e ngā raruraru kai. E ai ki ngā raraunga a te Poari Pūngao ā-Motu, i te mutunga o te tau 2023, i roto i ngā kawanatanga whakamātautau e ono e whakahaere ana i te aromatawai i te kaha kawe o te urunga PV tohatoha ki te whatunga, he rerekē ngā taumata o ngā raruraru kai. I tētahi atu taha, i muri i te whai wāhi a te PV tohatoha ki te hokohoko e aro ana ki te mākete, me aro atu ngā kaiwhakahaere tipu hiko ki tētahi taiao mākete uaua ake me te pēhanga whakataetae. E ai ki te China Photovoltaic Industry Association, i te mutunga o Hepetema 2024, ko te kaha tāuta katoa o te PV tohatoha i eke ki te 340 miriona kirowati, e 44% o te kaha tāuta katoa o te PV. Me te whānui haere tonu o te kaha tāuta, ka kaha haere te whakataetae mākete, ā, me whakapai tonu ngā kaiwhakahaere tipu hiko i ō rātou kaha whakahaere me te whakahaere mōrearea. Hei tāpiritanga, kei te pāngia hoki te mākete PV o ngā whare e ngā raruraru pēnei i te whakapai ake i ngā hangarau, te whakaiti i ngā utu, me ngā uauatanga pūtea. Heoi, nā te whanaketanga tonu o te hangarau me te tautoko tonu i ngā kaupapa here, kei te āta whakatauhia ēnei raruraru. Hei tauira, i ngā tau tata nei, kua heke tonu te utu o ngā tipu hiko PV o ngā whare, ā, kua piki haere tonu te ōwehenga utu-mahi, ā, kua whakatairanga i te rongonuitanga o te mākete me te marea. I taua wā anō, kua whakaurua hoki e te kāwanatanga he raupapa kaupapa here tautoko pūtea hei āwhina i ngā umanga iti me te rahi waenga (SME) me ngā kaimahi pāmu ki te whakaoti i ā rātou raruraru pūtea.
3. Te au whanaketanga me te whakapono
Ahakoa he maha ngā wero kei te pā ki te mākete PV o ngā whare, he pai tonu te whanaketanga o te umanga. Te tipu tonu o te kaha tāuta: E ai ki ngā raraunga hou i tukuna e te China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), i ngā marama 10 tuatahi o tēnei tau, ko te kaha tāuta whakaputa hiko PV o Haina i eke ki te 181.3 gigawatts (GW), he tipu tau-ki-te-tau o te 27.27%. I roto i ēnei, he tino pai te takoha photovoltaic tohatoha, ko te kaha tāuta katoa o te 96 GW, e 52.97%. Kei te piki haere te hokohoko tiwhikete matomato mana matomato: ka taea e ngā tiwhikete matomato te whakatutuki i te ine o te hiko pūngao whakahou me te tohu i te takoha taiao o te waeine hiko i hangaia e te pūngao whakahou. E ai ki ngā raraunga a te National Development and Reform Commission, mai i Hanuere ki Ākuhata 2024, i eke te kaha hokohoko hiko matomato o Haina ki te 177.5 piriona kWh, he pikinga 223% tau-ki-te-tau; neke atu i te 200 miriona te hokohoko tiwhikete matomato, tata ki te rima ngā wā i piki ake ai i te tau-ki-te-tau.
Kei te piki haere te whakapono o te mākete. Ahakoa kua piki ake te koretake o te mākete i roto i te wā poto e ngā panonitanga kaupapa here, i roto i te wā roa, ka noho tonu te kaupapa matua o te pokapū me te tohatoha, ā, he pumau te wāhi tipu o te mākete. E ai ki te matapae a te International Energy Agency (IEA), i te tau 2030, ka piki ake te PV tohatoha mai i te 694.4GW o nāianei ki te 2,353.5GW, ā, e tino tumanakohia ana ngā tūmanakohanga whanaketanga o te umanga.
Kei te tere te whanaketanga o ngā hiko PV tuanui o te whare, kei te haere tonu te tuku tono, ā, kei te puta tonu mai ngā mākete taumata gigawatt hou. Ko te tauine kua tāutahia o te whakaputa hiko PV tuanui o te whare i Jiangsu me Anhui i eke ki te 6.7 GW me te 3.1 GW, ā, kua pakaru te kaha tāuta o te whakaputa hiko PV tuanui o te whare i Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Liaoning, Zhejiang me ētahi atu kawanatanga i te GW.
Hei tāpiritanga, me te haere tonu o te whanaketanga o te hangarau me te whakaiti i ngā utu, ka nui ake te whai huatanga o ngā tipu hiko PV ā-whare. Hei tauira, i ngā tau tata nei, kua heke tonu te utu o ngā tipu hiko PV ā-whare, ā, ka nui ake ngā kaimahi pāmu me ngā umanga ka taea te utu i ngā utu tāutanga. I taua wā anō, kua whakaurua mai hoki e te kāwanatanga he raupapa kaupapa here tautoko, pērā i ngā whakatenatena tāke me ngā tautoko pūtea, hei whakatairanga i te rongonui me te whakanui ake i te mākete PV ā-whare.
I te heke mai, ka haere tonu te hohonu haere o te whakamahinga o te photovoltaic tohatoha i roto i ngā mahi ahuwhenua me ngā wāhi tuawhenua, te kawe waka, te hanga me ētahi atu wāhi tono, ā, ka tata ake te whakaurunga me te whanaketanga o ngā momo ahumahi, ā, ka tino whakauruhia ki te rokiroki pūngao, te whatunga atamai me ētahi atu hangarau hei hanga i tētahi whanaketanga whakauru.
"Kua noho te whatunga iti hei huarahi nui ki te whakapai ake i te kaha kawe me te kaha kai o te whatunga tohatoha, me te whakaoti rapanga i te mahi pumau o te pūngao hou kua tohatohahia i raro i te pūnaha hiko hou." I te Huihuinga Pūngao Atamai, i arotahi a Sun Shumin, te tohunga matua o te Rohe Pūngao ā-Motu, ki te whakawhanake i ngā whatunga iti. I ēnei rā, he maha ngā wāhi ka whakatakoto i ngā pūnaha hou ina hangaia ngā whatunga iti. Hei tauira, i roto i te papa kore-waro, ko te hiko matomato katoa, ko te whakaputa hua e rite ana ki ngā whakaritenga utu waro, engari ka whakaitihia hoki ngā taake waro, ka whakapai ake i te whakataetae hua, ka noho hei wāhi nui o te mākete i te heke mai o te hanganga pūngao hou.
I te heke mai, ka haere tonu te whakamahinga o te photovoltaic tohatoha i roto i ngā whenua ahuwhenua me ngā whenua tuawhenua, te kawe waka, te hanga me ētahi atu wāhi o te tono, ā, ka tata ake te whakaurunga o te whanaketanga o ngā ahumahi rerekē, ka honoa ki te rokiroki pūngao, te whatunga atamai me ētahi atu hangarau i roto i te whakakotahitanga hohonu, ka hangaia he whanaketanga whakauru. Ka taea hoki te whakawhanake mā te aratau kāinga katoa, te huri i te whatunga tohatoha taketake i roto i te whenua tuawhenua, te whakatinanatanga o te whanaketanga pokapū, te hoahoa, te hanga, te whakahaere me te tiaki, te whakahaere me te hononga whatunga ngaohiko teitei o te teihana hiko, te hanga i ngā otinga whatunga moroiti atamai maha-āhuatanga, me te whakatutuki i te whakaurunga o te whanaketanga, te tohatoha, te whakamahinga (te utu) me te whakahaere hihiri rokiroki mā te pokapū whakaritenga atamai kia taea ai e te PV o te whare te whai wāhi nui ake ki ngā painga, me te whakarei ake i te pumau o te pūnaha, te whakarerekētanga me te taumata atamai.
I te nuinga o te wā, i roto i te whanaketanga o te kaupapa whakaputa hiko photovoltaic tohatoha, me arotahi te pakihi ā muri ake nei ki ngā kaupapa e whā: ko te tuatahi ko te whai wāhi atu ki te mākete hiko i runga anō i ngā whakaritenga e tika ana a te kawanatanga; ko te tuarua ko te whakarei ake i te hangarau mōhiohio kaupapa, te mamati, te taumata atamai, ki te whakatutuki i te mea ka taea te kite, te ine, te whakarerekē, te whakahaere; ko te tuatoru ko te whakakotahitanga pokapū me te whatunga ka taea te whakapai ake i te kaha kawe o te whatunga; ko te tuawhā ko te whakarerekē i te tūnga, te arotahi ki ngā ratonga whakahaere pūngao, te whakapai ake me te whakapai ake i te pūnaha momo whatunga-kore, me ētahi atu.
Ki te titiro whakamua, he take tā tātou ki te whakapono ka arahi te umanga hiko PV o ngā whare ki tētahi āpōpō pai ake. Mā te tere o te whakawhiti hiko o te ao me te whakaaro ki te whāinga "waro rua", ka arahi te hiko PV o ngā whare, hei tohu nui mō te hiko ma, ki tētahi wāhi whanaketanga whānui ake. I taua wā anō, me te ahunga whakamua tonu o te hangarau me te tautoko kaupapa here, ka whakapai ake i te whai huatanga utu o ngā tipu hiko PV o ngā whare, ka whakatairanga i te rongonuitanga o te mākete me te marea.
