Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, i-PV yasekhaya, njengenxalenye ebalulekileyo yotshintsho lwamandla eTshayina, iye yafumana uphuhliso olukhawulezileyo ukususela ekuqaleni, ukusuka ekubeni buthathaka ukuya ekubeni namandla. Ngenxa yotshintsho kwimeko-bume yomgaqo-nkqubo kunye nokuguquguquka kwemfuno yemarike, ishishini le-PV yasekhaya nalo lijongene nemingeni emininzi kunye namathuba.
1. Utshintsho lwemarike oluqhutywa yimigaqo-nkqubo
Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, i-National Energy Administration (NEA) ikhuphe imigaqo-nkqubo emininzi yokubonelela ngenkxaso eqinileyo kuphuhliso lwemarike ye-PV yamakhaya.2024 Ngo-Okthobha, i-NEA ikhuphe "Amanyathelo Olawulo Ophuhliso Nokwakhiwa Kokuveliswa Kwamandla E-Photovoltaic Asasazwayo (Umzobo Wokutyhileka)" ohlaziyiweyo (obizwa ngokuba yi-"Umzobo Wokutyhileka"), ocacisa kwiNqaku lama-36 ukuba iiprojekthi zokuveliswa kwamandla e-photovoltaic asasazwayo kufuneka zithathe inxaxheba kwimarike yombane ngokuhambelana nemigaqo efanelekileyo karhulumente, ephawula ukuba i-photovoltaic yasekhaya "ingene kwimarike" igqityiwe. Olu tshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo lunempembelelo enkulu kwimarike ye-PV yamakhaya. Ngokwedatha yeBhodi yeSizwe yaMandla, umthamo ofakiweyo we-PV yamakhaya ka-2023 ufikelele kwi-43.48GW, irekhodi eliphezulu. Nangona kunjalo, ngokukhula ngokukhawuleza komlinganiselo wokufakelwa kwe-PV esasazwayo, ezinye iindawo ziye zavela njengengxaki yokusebenzisa. Ukwaziswa kwe-"Exposure Draft" kujoliswe ekukhokeleni ukufikelela ngokufanelekileyo kwi-PV esasazwe kunye nokusetyenziswa ngokufanelekileyo kombane ngeendlela ezisekwe kwimarike, kunye nokukhuthaza ukwabiwa ngokufanelekileyo kwezixhobo zamandla. Ukongeza, i-"Exposure Draft" ikwakho okokuqala uhlobo lweprojekthi ecacileyo "yomntu ongengowendalo" yendlu, enika umntu ongengowendalo amalungelo okufaka iprojekthi yendlu, ukusombulula umxholo wotyalo-mali lweprojekthi yendlu ixesha elide kunye nomxholo wokufakwa kwengxaki engaguqukiyo. Ngokweqikelelo, imakethi ye-PV yendlu yaseTshayina inomthamo omkhulu ongaphezulu kwe-1600GW, kulindeleke ukuba ifake uphahla lwe-PV yendlu olungaphezulu kwezigidi ezingama-80, izinga lokungena ngoku limalunga ne-10% kuphela, kunye nendawo enkulu yokukhula kunye namandla ophuhliso.
2. Imeko yeMarike kunye nemingeni
Nangona imeko-bume yomgaqo-nkqubo iphuculiwe, imakethi ye-PV yasekhaya isajongene nemingeni emininzi. Kwelinye icala, ngenxa yokuncipha kancinci kwamandla aqhagamshelwe kwigridi kunye nokukhula ngokukhawuleza kwamandla afakelwe kwi-PV, ezinye iindawo ziye zahlangabezana neengxaki zokusetyenziswa. Ngokwedatha yeBhodi yeSizwe yaMandla, ekupheleni kuka-2023, kumaphondo amathandathu ovavanyo aqhuba uvavanyo lomthamo wokuthwala we-PV esasazekileyo ukufikelela kwigridi, kukho amanqanaba ahlukeneyo eengxaki zokusetyenziswa. Kwelinye icala, emva kokuba i-PV esasazekileyo ithatha inxaxheba kurhwebo olujolise kwimarike, abaqhubi bezityalo zamandla kufuneka bajongane nemeko-bume yemarike enzima ngakumbi kunye noxinzelelo lokhuphiswano. Ngokutsho kwe-China Photovoltaic Industry Association, ekupheleni kukaSeptemba 2024, umthamo ofakelweyo we-PV esasazekileyo ufikelele kwi-340 yezigidi zeekhilowatts, nto leyo ethetha i-44% yamandla afakelweyo e-PV. Ngokwandiswa okuqhubekayo kwamandla afakelweyo, ukhuphiswano lwemarike luya kuba nzima ngakumbi, kwaye abaqhubi bezityalo zamandla kufuneka baqhubeke nokuphucula amandla abo okusebenza kunye nolawulo lomngcipheko. Ukongeza, imakethi ye-PV yamakhaya ikwajongene neengxaki ezifana nokuphuculwa kwezobuchwepheshe, ukuncitshiswa kweendleko, kunye nobunzima bemali. Nangona kunjalo, ngenkqubela phambili yeteknoloji kunye nenkxaso eqhubekayo yemigaqo-nkqubo, ezi ngxaki zisonjululwa kancinci kancinci. Umzekelo, kwiminyaka yakutshanje, iindleko zezityalo zamandla ze-PV zamakhaya ziqhubekile nokuhla, kwaye umlinganiselo wexabiso nokusebenza uqhubekile nokuphucuka, nto leyo ekhuthaze ukwanda kwemarike kunye nabantu abaninzi. Kwangaxeshanye, urhulumente ukwazise uthotho lwemigaqo-nkqubo yokuxhasa ngemali ukunceda amashishini amancinci naphakathi (ii-SME) kunye nabalimi ukusombulula iingxaki zabo zemali.
3. Indlela yophuhliso kunye nokuzithemba
Nangona imakethi ye-PV yasekhaya ijongene nemingeni emininzi, indlela yophuhliso lweli shishini isalungile. Ukukhula okuqhubekayo kumandla afakiweyo: Ngokwedatha yamva nje ekhutshwe yi-China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), kwiinyanga ezili-10 zokuqala zalo nyaka, amandla afakiweyo okuvelisa umbane we-PV eTshayina afikelele kwi-181.3 gigawatts (GW), ukukhula konyaka nonyaka kwe-27.27%. Phakathi kwazo, igalelo le-photovoltaic elisasazwayo libalaseleyo, amandla afakiweyo ewonke angama-96 GW, amalunga nama-52.97%. Urhwebo lwesatifikethi se-green power green luyanda: izatifikethi eziluhlaza zinokufikelela ekulinganisweni kombane wamandla avuselelekayo kwaye zimele igalelo lokusingqongileyo lomoya weyunithi yombane eveliswa ngamandla avuselelekayo. Ngokwedatha yeKhomishini yoPhuhliso noHlaziyo yeSizwe, ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Agasti 2024, amandla orhwebo lwamandla aluhlaza eTshayina afikelele kwi-177.5 yeebhiliyoni kWh, enyuke nge-223% unyaka nonyaka; urhwebo lwesatifikethi se-green ludlule kwi-200 yezigidi, enyuke phantse kahlanu ngonyaka nonyaka.
Ukuzithemba kwimarike kuyakhula kancinci kancinci. Nangona utshintsho kwimigaqo-nkqubo luye lwandisa ukungaqiniseki kwimarike kwixesha elifutshane, kwixesha elide, umgaqo wokwabiwa kunye nokwabiwa awutshintshi, kwaye imarike inendawo yokukhula ezinzileyo. Ngokwesibikezelo se-International Energy Agency (IEA), ngo-2030, i-PV eyabiweyo iya kwanda ukusuka kwi-694.4GW yangoku ukuya kwi-2,353.5GW, amathuba ophuhliso lweshishini alindelwe ngokupheleleyo.
I-PV yophahla lwendlu yasekhaya ifezekisa uphuhliso olukhawulezileyo, imfuno iyaqhubeka nokukhululwa, kwaye iimarike ezintsha zenqanaba le-gigawatt ziyaqhubeka nokuvela. Umlinganiselo omiselweyo wokuveliswa kombane we-PV yophahla lwendlu eJiangsu nase-Anhui ufikelele kwi-6.7 GW kunye ne-3.1 GW ngokulandelelana, kwaye umthamo ofakiweyo wokuveliswa kombane we-PV yophahla lwendlu eShandong, eShanxi, eHebei, eLiaoning, eZhejiang nakwamanye amaphondo uye waphula i-GW.
Ukongeza, ngenkqubela phambili eqhubekayo yetekhnoloji kunye nokunciphisa iindleko, ukusebenza kakuhle kwesityalo samandla se-PV sasekhaya kuya kuphucuka ngakumbi. Umzekelo, kwiminyaka yakutshanje, iindleko zezityalo zamandla ze-PV zasekhaya ziqhubekile nokwehla, nto leyo eyenza abalimi abaninzi kunye namashishini bakwazi ukuhlawula iindleko zokufakela. Kwangaxeshanye, urhulumente ukwazise uthotho lwemigaqo-nkqubo exhasayo, efana nezikhuthazo zerhafu kunye nenkxaso-mali, nto leyo ekhuthaza ngakumbi ukuthandwa nokwanda kwemarike ye-PV yasekhaya.
Kwixesha elizayo, i-photovoltaic esasazekileyo kwezolimo nakwiindawo zasemaphandleni, ezothutho, ulwakhiwo kunye nezinye iindawo zokusetyenziswa nazo ziya kuqhubeka zisiba nzulu, kwaye ukuhlanganiswa nophuhliso lwamashishini ahlukeneyo kuya kuba kufutshane, kwaye kuya kudityaniswa nzulu nokugcinwa kwamandla, igridi ekrelekrele kunye nezinye iitekhnoloji ukwenza uphuhliso oludibeneyo.
"I-Micro-grid ibe yindlela ebalulekileyo yokuphucula amandla okuthwala kunye nomthamo wokusetyenziswa kwegridi yokusasaza kunye nokusombulula ukusebenza okuzinzileyo kwamandla ahlaziyekayo asasazwayo phantsi kwenkqubo entsha yamandla." KwiForam yeSmart Energy, uSun Shumin, ingcali eyintloko yeGrid kaRhulumente, ugxile kuphuhliso lweegridi ezincinci. Namhlanje, iindawo ezininzi ziya kubeka iinkqubo ezivuselelekayo xa zakha iigridi ezincinci. Umzekelo, kwindawo engenakhabhoni, umbane oluhlaza wonke, ukuveliswa kweemveliso ngokuhambelana neemfuno zerhafu yekhabhoni, kodwa kwanokunciphisa irhafu yekhabhoni, ukuphucula ukhuphiswano lwemveliso, oluya kuba yindawo ephambili kwimarike kwixesha elizayo lokwakhiwa kwamandla amatsha.
Kwixesha elizayo, i-photovoltaic esasazwe kwezolimo nakwiindawo zasemaphandleni, ezothutho, ulwakhiwo kunye nezinye iindawo zesicelo nazo ziya kuqhubeka zinzulu, kwaye ukuhlanganiswa kophuhliso lwamashishini ahlukeneyo kuya kuba kufutshane ngakumbi, kuya kuba kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla, igridi ehlakaniphile kunye nezinye iitekhnoloji ezidibeneyo, ukwakhiwa kophuhliso oludibeneyo. Ingaphuhliswa nangendlela yonke yelali, iguqula inethiwekhi yokusasazwa yokuqala emaphandleni, ifezekise uphuhliso oluphakathi, uyilo, ulwakhiwo, ukusebenza kunye nokugcinwa, ulawulo kunye noqhagamshelo lwegridi oluphezulu lwesikhululo samandla, ukwakha izisombululo zegridi encinci ekrelekrele eneemeko ezininzi, kunye nokufezekisa ukuhlanganiswa kophuhliso, ukusasazwa, ukusetyenziswa (ukutshaja) kunye nolawulo olunamandla lokugcina ngokusebenzisa iziko lokuhlela elikrelekrele ukuvumela i-PV yasekhaya ukuba idlale indima enkulu kwiingenelo, kunye nokuphucula uzinzo lwenkqubo yayo, uhlengahlengiso kunye nenqanaba elikrelekrele.
Lilonke, kuphuhliso lweprojekthi yokuvelisa umbane we-photovoltaic esasazwe, ishishini elizayo kufuneka ligxile kumanqaku amane: elinye kukuthatha inxaxheba kwimarike yamandla ngokuhambelana nemigaqo efanelekileyo karhulumente; esibini kukuphucula iteknoloji yolwazi lweprojekthi, ukwenziwa kwedijithali, inqanaba lobukrelekrele, ukufezekisa okubonakalayo, okulinganisekayo, okuhlengahlengiswayo, okulawulekayo; esithathu kukudibana okuphakathi kunye negridi kunokuphucula amandla okuthwala igridi; esine kukutshintsha indawo, ukugxila kwiinkonzo zolawulo lwamandla, ukuphucula kunye nokuphucula inkqubo yohlobo olungaphandle kwegridi, njalo njalo.
Xa sijonge phambili, sinesizathu sokukholelwa ukuba ishishini le-PV yasekhaya liza kuzisa ikamva elingcono. Ngokukhawuleziswa kotshintsho lwamandla kwihlabathi liphela kunye nesiphakamiso senjongo "yekhabhoni ephindwe kabini", i-PV yasekhaya, njengommeli obalulekileyo wamandla acocekileyo, iya kuzisa indawo ebanzi yophuhliso. Kwangaxeshanye, ngenkqubela phambili eqhubekayo yetekhnoloji kunye nenkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo, ukusebenza kakuhle kwezityalo zamandla ze-PV zasekhaya kuya kuphucuka ngakumbi, okukhuthaza ukuthandwa kwemarike kunye noluntu ngokubanzi.
