1. Zoyambitsa Kukula ndi Mavuto mu Msika wa Dzuwa ku US
Kuyambira mu 2013, mtengo wa mphamvu ya dzuwa ku US wakhala wotsika kuposa malasha, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti ikhale imodzi mwamagetsi otsika mtengo kwambiri. Komabe, m'zaka khumi zapitazi, kuyika magetsi a dzuwa kwakhala ndi kuchepa kwakukulu kawiri chifukwa cha kusintha kwa mfundo za Investment Tax Credit (ITC) ndi zoletsa zotumiza kunja kwa zinthu ku China. Makina a dzuwa oyikidwa pansi ndi 60-70% ya kuyika konse ku US. Posachedwapa, kuyika magetsi m'nyumba kwachepa chifukwa cha kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja ndi kusintha kwa mfundo za boma. Ngakhale zili choncho, mapulojekiti oyikidwa pansi akupitiliza kupereka phindu lolimba, mothandizidwa ndi ITC. Pamene chiwongola dzanja chikutsika ndipo phindu la ITC likupitirirabe, kuyika magetsi a dzuwa kukuyembekezeka kukula.
Solar tsopano ili ndi gawo lalikulu mu mphamvu, koma ikadali kumbuyo kwa mafuta opangidwa ndi zinthu zakale. Kukulitsa kwa malamulo a ITC ndi boma la Biden kumapereka chithandizo cha nthawi yayitali pakukula kwa mphamvu ya dzuwa. Ndi mapulojekiti olimba, msika wa mphamvu ya dzuwa ku US ukuyembekezeka kupitiriza kukula kawiri m'zaka ziwiri zikubwerazi. International Energy Agency (IEA) ikuneneratu kuti mu 2024, mapulojekiti akuluakulu a mphamvu ya dzuwa (oposa 1MW) adzawonjezera 36.4GW, zomwe zimapangitsa 58% ya mphamvu zatsopano ku US Chifukwa cha kupanga kochepa kwa magetsi m'nyumba (osakwana 7GW kumapeto kwa 2023), magawo awiri mwa atatu a mphamvu ya dzuwa amadalira zinthu zochokera kunja.
2. Zotsatira za Misonkho pa Unyolo Wopereka Mphamvu ya Dzuwa ku Southeast Asia
Misonkho yotsutsana ndi kutaya magetsi ndi kubweza misonkho ku makampani amagetsi aku China ku US yasamutsa kupanga ku Southeast Asia, zomwe zapangitsa kuti derali likhale logulitsa kwambiri ku US. Misonkho yapamwamba komanso zoletsa zogulira zinthu zakakamiza makampani kusamutsa mphamvu zawo kupita ku Southeast Asia. Komabe, zilango zatsopano zitha kuchepetsa kupanga ku Southeast Asia, zomwe zikuwonjezera ndalama ndikukhudza kupezeka kwa magetsi ku US. M'kanthawi kochepa, US ipitiliza kudalira Southeast Asia kuti ipeze ma solar cell ndi zinthu zina zoyendetsera magetsi, pomwe njira zothetsera mavuto a nthawi yayitali zitha kuyang'ana kwambiri pakumanga mphamvu zapakhomo kuti zipewe misonkho.
3. Makampani Opanga Dzuwa ku US ndi Zotsatira za IRA
Makampani opanga magetsi a dzuwa ku US apindula kwambiri ndi lamulo la Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), lomwe linawonjezera zolimbikitsira za ITC ndikuyambitsa ndalama zothandizira makampani kuti alimbikitse kupanga zinthu m'deralo. Ndalama zothandizirazi cholinga chake ndi kulimbitsa unyolo wopereka magetsi a dzuwa m'dziko muno, kupereka chithandizo chachikulu kwa opanga zinthu ndi zinthu. Miyezo ya ogwira ntchito ndi zofunikira pakupanga zinthu m'dziko muno zikulimbikitsanso kupanga zinthu m'deralo, zomwe zikuyembekezeka kukulirakulira m'zaka zikubwerazi.
4. Ndalama Zothandizira pa Dzuwa ku US ndi Zotsatira Zake
Ndalama zothandizira za IRA zabwezeretsa mphamvu makampani opanga magetsi a dzuwa aku US monga First Solar, zomwe zapangitsa kuti apindule. Ndondomekozi sizimangowonjezera magwiridwe antchito azachuma kwakanthawi kochepa komanso ndizofunikira pakupeza phindu kwa nthawi yayitali. Pamene mphamvu zapakhomo zikukwera, ndalama zothandizira zidzakulitsa mpikisano. Ndi kuchepa kwa zinthu, mitengo ya ma module ikuyembekezeka kukwera, zomwe zimachepetsa nkhawa zokhudzana ndi kutsika kwa mitengo. Ngakhale kuti US ikukumana ndi mavuto okhudzana ndi kupezeka kwa silicon, kukulitsa kupanga kwapakhomo ndikugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zothandizira zomwe zilipo kale kudzathandiza kusunga mpikisano wapadziko lonse lapansi. Kusanthula kukusonyeza kuti ngakhale phindu la ma module ophatikizidwa aku Southeast Asia lingachepe chifukwa cha misonkho, kugwiritsa ntchito ma cell aku US okhala ndi Southeast Asia assembly kumakhalabe kopindulitsa.
5. Mavuto ndi Mwayi kwa Makampani Opanga Ma Solar aku China ku US
Makampani aku China monga Canadian Solar ndi LONGi akukulitsa kupanga kwawo ku US, zomwe zikugogomezera kufunika kwa kupanga zinthu zakomweko kuti zinthu zikuyendere bwino kwa nthawi yayitali. Ngakhale kuti pali zovuta pakumanga ndi kusamalira malo am'deralo, kuyika ndalama mu mphamvu zopangira maselo ndikofunikira kwambiri kuti zinthu zikuyendere bwino mtsogolo. Makampani omwe amayang'ana kwambiri za malo am'deralo ndikumanga ubale wolimba ndi boma ali ndi mwayi wopambana pamsika waku US ndikupanga phindu lokhazikika. Ogulitsa ndalama ayenera kuyang'anira kusintha kwa ndalama zothandizira, mitengo, ndi zoopsa za patent kuti agwiritse ntchito mwayiwu.
6. Ndondomeko za Dzuwa ku US ndi Chiyembekezo Chokhazikitsa
Mapulojekiti opangidwa pansi ku US akadali opindulitsa kwambiri. Ngakhale kuti chiwongola dzanja chakwera (pafupifupi 8.5%), mapulojekitiwa amapeza pafupifupi 8.38%, makamaka chifukwa cha phindu la ITC, lomwe limachepetsa ngongole zamisonkho ndi 30%, zomwe zimachepetsa ndalama zogulira.
Pamene chiwongola dzanja chikuchepa, phindu la mapulojekiti a dzuwa likuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka. Mwachitsanzo, kuchepa kwa chiwongola dzanja ndi 1% kudzawonjezera phindu pa moyo wonse wa projekiti ya dzuwa. Ngakhale kuti mphamvu ya dzuwa yakhala ikuyika zoposa 50% ya malo atsopano m'zaka zaposachedwa, ikadali pafupifupi 5% yokha ya mphamvu yonse yamagetsi, zomwe zikusiya malo okwanira okula.
ITC yakhala ikuyendetsa bwino kukula kwa mphamvu ya dzuwa ku US kuyambira mu 2005, ndi ndalama zothandizira kuyambira 26-30%. IRA ya boma la Biden idawonjezera phindu la ITC mpaka 2032, zomwe zidapereka chithandizo champhamvu pakukulitsa mphamvu ya dzuwa mtsogolo.
Kukhazikitsa magetsi a dzuwa ku US kukuyembekezeka kukula mofulumira m'zaka zingapo zikubwerazi. Pofika kotala yoyamba ya 2024, mapulojekiti opitilira 100GW a dzuwa ali mkati, zomwe zikuthandizira kukula kwa makinawa kwa zaka 2-3 zikubwerazi. Ziwerengero zikusonyeza kuti US ikhoza kukhazikitsa magetsi a 43-45GW mu 2024, ndi kukula kopitilira 20% komwe kukuyembekezeka mu 2025.
Ma module a solar aku US ali ndi ubwino waukulu: amalandira 7-cent pa watt subsidy pansi pa IRA, salipira msonkho wina pa ma cell aku Southeast Asia, ndipo akhoza kulandira bonasi yowonjezera ya 10% ITC, ndikuwonjezera mtengo wapamwamba. Izi zimapangitsa ma module aku US kukhala opikisana komanso opindulitsa poyerekeza ndi ma module aku Southeast Asia omwe akuphatikizidwa mokwanira.
