1. Izinto ezibangela ukukhula kunye nemingeni kwiMarike yeLanga yaseMelika
Ukususela ngo-2013, iindleko zamandla elanga eMelika beziphantsi kunezamalahle, nto leyo eyenza ukuba ibe yenye yezona mithombo zamandla zifikelelekayo. Nangona kunjalo, kwiminyaka elishumi edlulileyo, ukufakelwa kwamandla elanga kuye kwaneengxaki ezimbini ezibalulekileyo ngenxa yotshintsho kumgaqo-nkqubo weRhafu yoTyalo-mali (i-ITC) kunye nemida yokungenisa izinto kwamanye amazwe kwiinxalenye zaseTshayina. Iinkqubo zelanga ezifakwe emhlabeni zithatha i-60-70% yokufakelwa kwe-US iyonke. Kutshanje, ukufakelwa kweendawo zokuhlala kuye kwehla ngenxa yokunyuka kwamazinga enzala kunye notshintsho kwimigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente. Nangona kunjalo, iiprojekthi ezifakwe emhlabeni ziyaqhubeka nokubonelela ngembuyekezo eqinileyo, exhaswa yi-ITC. Njengoko amazinga enzala ehla kwaye iinzuzo ze-ITC ziqhubeka, ukufakelwa kwamandla elanga kulindeleke ukuba kukhule.
I-Solar ngoku inesabelo esibonakalayo kumxube wamandla, kodwa isasele emva kwamafutha efosili. Ukwandiswa kwemigaqo-nkqubo ye-ITC ngurhulumente kaBiden kubonelela ngenkxaso yexesha elide ekukhuleni kwelanga. Ngenxa yokugcinwa kweeprojekthi ezinamandla, imakethi yelanga yase-US kulindeleke ukuba iqhubeke nokukhula okuphindwe kabini kwiminyaka emibini ezayo. I-International Energy Agency (IEA) iqikelela ukuba ngo-2024, iiprojekthi ezinkulu zelanga (ngaphezulu kwe-1MW) ziya kongeza i-36.4GW, ebalelwa kwi-58% yamandla amatsha e-US Ngenxa yemveliso yasekhaya encinci (ngaphantsi kwe-7GW ekupheleni kuka-2023), ngaphezulu kwesibini kwisithathu sezinto zelanga zixhomekeke ekungenisweni kwamanye amazwe.
2. Impembelelo yeeRhafu kwiCandelo loNikezelo lweLanga eMzantsi-mpuma Asia
Imithetho yase-US yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma kunye nemithetho echaseneyo kwiinkampani zelanga zaseTshayina itshintshele imveliso eMzantsi-mpuma Asia, nto leyo eyenza lo mmandla ube ngumthengisi oyintloko e-US. Amaxabiso aphezulu kunye nemiqathango yokuhambisa izinto inyanzele iinkampani ukuba zifudusele umthamo wazo eMzantsi-mpuma Asia. Nangona kunjalo, izohlwayo ezintsha zinokunciphisa imveliso eMzantsi-mpuma Asia, nto leyo enyusa iindleko kwaye ichaphazele ukunikezelwa kwe-US. Ngexesha elifutshane, i-US iya kuqhubeka ixhomekeke kwi-Southeast Asia kwiiseli zelanga kunye nezinto ezisezantsi, ngelixa izisombululo zexesha elide ziya kugxila ekwakheni amandla asekhaya ukuze kuthintelwe amaxabiso.
3. Ishishini lelanga laseMelika kunye nempembelelo ye-IRA
Ishishini lelanga laseMelika lizuze kakhulu kuMthetho woNciphiso lwamaxabiso (i-IRA), owandisa izibonelelo ze-ITC waza wazisa izibonelelo ezinkulu kwicala lokubonelela ngemithombo ukuze kukhuthazwe ukuveliswa kwemveliso yasekuhlaleni. Ezi zibonelelo zijolise ekuqiniseni uthungelwano lokubonelela ngemithombo yelanga yasekhaya, zibonelela ngenkxaso enkulu kubavelisi bezinto kunye nezixhobo. Imigangatho yabasebenzi kunye neemfuno zomxholo wasekhaya ziqhubela phambili ukuvelisa imveliso yasekhaya, umkhwa okulindeleke ukuba uqine kwiminyaka ezayo.
4. Iinkxaso-mali zelanga zaseMelika kunye nefuthe lazo
Izibonelelo ze-IRA ezinobubele zivuselele iinkampani zelanga zaseMelika ezifana neFirst Solar, zizenza zibe nenzuzo. Le migaqo-nkqubo ayiphuculi nje kuphela ukusebenza kwemali kwexesha elifutshane kodwa ibalulekile kwinzuzo yexesha elide. Njengoko amandla asekhaya esanda, izibonelelo ziya kuphucula ngakumbi ukhuphiswano. Ngokubonelela okuncinci, amaxabiso eemodyuli kulindeleke ukuba anyuke, nto leyo enciphisa amaxhala malunga nokwehla kwamaxabiso. Ngelixa i-US ijongene nemingeni ngokubonelela nge-silicon, ukwandisa imveliso yasekhaya kunye nokusebenzisa izibonelelo ezikhoyo kuya kunceda ukugcina ukhuphiswano lwehlabathi. Uhlalutyo lubonisa ukuba nangona inzuzo yeemodyuli ezidibeneyo zaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia inokwehla ngenxa yerhafu, ukusebenzisa iiseli zaseMelika kunye nendibano yaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia kuhlala kunenzuzo.
5. Imingeni kunye namathuba kwiinkampani zelanga zaseTshayina eMelika
Iinkampani zaseTshayina ezifana neCanadian Solar kunye neLONGI ziyandisa imveliso yazo e-US, zigxininisa ukubaluleka kokwenziwa kwemveliso yasekhaya ukuze kuphumelele ixesha elide. Nangona kukho imingeni ekwakheni nasekugcinweni kwezibonelelo zasekuhlaleni, ukutyala imali kumandla okuvelisa iiseli kubalulekile ekukhuleni kwexesha elizayo. Iinkampani ezigxila ekusetyenzisweni kweendawo kunye nokwakha ubudlelwane obuqinileyo norhulumente zinamathuba amaninzi okuphumelela kwimarike yaseMelika kwaye zenze inzuzo eqhubekayo. Abatyali-mali kufuneka bajonge utshintsho kwizibonelelo, iirhafu, kunye nemingcipheko yelungelo lomenzi ukuze basebenzise amathuba.
6. Imigaqo-nkqubo yelanga yaseMelika kunye neMbono yoFakelo
Iiprojekthi ezisekwe phantsi komhlaba eMelika zisaqhubeka nenzuzo enkulu. Nangona amazinga enzala aphezulu (malunga ne-8.5%), ezi projekthi zivelisa malunga ne-8.38%, ikakhulu ngenxa yeenzuzo ze-ITC, ezinciphisa amatyala erhafu nge-30%, zinciphisa iindleko zotyalo-mali.
Njengoko amazinga enzala ehla, kulindeleke ukuba imbuyekezo yeprojekthi yelanga iphucuke. Umzekelo, ukwehla kwe-1% kwinzala kuya kwandisa imbuyekezo ebomini beprojekthi yelanga. Nangona amandla elanga ebengaphezulu kwama-50% okufakelwa okutsha kwiminyaka yakutshanje, asamele kuphela malunga ne-5% yamandla ewonke, nto leyo eshiya indawo enkulu yokukhula.
I-ITC ibingumqhubi ophambili wokukhula kwamandla elanga e-US ukusukela ngo-2005, kunye neenkxaso-mali eziqala kwi-26-30%. I-IRA yolawulo lukaBiden yongeze iingenelo ze-ITC ukuya kuthi ga ngo-2032, inika inkxaso enamandla yokwandiswa kwamandla elanga kwixesha elizayo.
Ukufakelwa kwezibane zelanga eMelika kulindeleke ukuba kukhule ngokukhawuleza kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo. Kwikota yokuqala ka-2024, iiprojekthi zelanga ezingaphezu kwe-100GW zisendleleni, zixhasa ukukhula kokufakelwa kwiminyaka emi-2-3 ezayo. Uqikelelo lubonisa ukuba i-US ingafaka i-43-45GW ngo-2024, kunye nokukhula okungaphezulu kwama-20% kulindeleke ngo-2025.
Iimodyuli zelanga zase-US zinezibonelelo ezibalulekileyo: zifumana inkxaso-mali ye-7-cent nge-watt phantsi kwe-IRA, azihlawuliswanga kwiirhafu ezithile kwiiseli zase-Southeast Asia, kwaye zinokufanelekela ibhonasi eyongezelelweyo ye-10% ye-ITC, yongeza iprimiyamu. Oku kwenza iimodyuli zase-US zikhuphisane kwaye zibe nenzuzo xa kuthelekiswa neemodyuli zase-Southeast Asia ezidityanisiweyo ngokupheleleyo.
