1. Ingaruka z'iterambere n'imbogamizi ku isoko ry'izuba muri Amerika
Kuva mu 2013, ikiguzi cy'ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba muri Amerika cyabaye gito ugereranyije n'amakara, bituma kiba kimwe mu bicuruzwa bihendutse cyane mu gutanga ingufu. Ariko, mu myaka icumi ishize, gushyiraho imirasire y'izuba byahuye n'ihungabana rikomeye rikabije bitewe n'impinduka muri politiki y'inguzanyo y'ishoramari (ITC) n'amategeko agenga itumizwa ry'ibicuruzwa mu Bushinwa. Sisitemu z'izuba zikomoka ku butaka zigize 60-70% by'ibikoresho byose byo muri Amerika. Vuba aha, gushyiraho imiturire byagabanutse bitewe n'izamuka ry'inyungu n'impinduka muri politiki za leta. Nubwo bimeze bityo, imishinga ikomoka ku butaka ikomeje gutanga inyungu ikomeye, ishyigikiwe na ITC. Uko inyungu zigabanuka kandi inyungu za ITC zigakomeza, gushyiraho imirasire y'izuba byitezwe ko biziyongera.
Ubu imirasire y'izuba ifite uruhare rugaragara mu mvange y'ingufu, ariko iracyari inyuma y'ibikomoka kuri peteroli. Gukomeza kwa gahunda za ITC na guverinoma ya Biden bitanga inkunga y'igihe kirekire mu iterambere ry'izuba. Hamwe n'imishinga ikomeye, isoko ry'izuba muri Amerika ryitezweho gukomeza kwiyongera kw'imibare ibiri mu myaka ibiri iri imbere. Ikigo Mpuzamahanga Gishinzwe Ingufu (IEA) giteganya ko mu 2024, imishinga minini y'izuba (irenga 1MW) izongeraho 36.4GW, bingana na 58% by'ubushobozi bushya bw'ingufu muri Amerika Kubera umusaruro muke w'imbere mu gihugu (uri munsi ya 7GW mu mpera za 2023), ibice birenga bibiri bya gatatu by'ingufu z'izuba bishingira ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga.
2. Ingaruka z'imisoro ku ruhererekane rw'ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba
Imisoro yo kurwanya ikoreshwa ry’ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y’izuba muri Amerika no kuyisubiza inyuma, byatumye umusaruro wimurirwa mu majyepfo y’uburasirazuba bwa Aziya, bituma ako karere kaba ari ko gatanga ibicuruzwa bya mbere muri Amerika. Imisoro yo hejuru n’amabwiriza agenga imikoreshereze y’ibikoresho byatumye ibigo byimurira ubushobozi bwabyo mu majyepfo y’uburasirazuba bwa Aziya. Ariko, ibihano bishya bishobora kugabanya umusaruro muri Aziya y’uburasirazuba, bigatera ibiciro no kugira ingaruka ku itangwa ryabyo muri Amerika. Mu gihe gito, Amerika izakomeza kwishingikiriza kuri Aziya y’uburasirazuba ku ngirabuzimafatizo z’ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y’izuba n’ibice byo hejuru, mu gihe ibisubizo by’igihe kirekire bishobora kwibanda ku kubaka ubushobozi bw’imbere mu gihugu kugira ngo hirindwe imisoro.
3. Inganda zikoresha imirasire y'izuba muri Amerika n'ingaruka za IRA
Inganda zikora imirasire y'izuba muri Amerika zungukiye cyane ku Itegeko ryo Kugabanya Izamuka ry'Ibiciro (IRA), ryongereye inkunga ya ITC ndetse rinashyiraho inkunga nini zitangwa n'ibigo bitanga umusaruro kugira ngo bishishikarize inganda zo mu gihugu. Izi nkunga zigamije gukomeza urusobe rw'imirasire y'izuba mu gihugu, zigatanga inkunga ikomeye ku bakora ibikoresho n'ibikoresho. Amahame agenga umurimo n'ibisabwa mu gihugu birushaho gutuma umusaruro ukorwa mu gihugu, bikaba byitezwe ko uzarushaho kwiyongera mu myaka iri imbere.
4. Inkunga z'izuba zo muri Amerika n'ingaruka zazo
Inkunga nyinshi za IRA zongereye imbaraga ibigo by’ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y’izuba byo muri Amerika nka First Solar, bituma bigira inyungu. Izi politiki ntizinoza gusa imikorere y’imari mu gihe gito ahubwo ni ingenzi mu nyungu z’igihe kirekire. Uko ubushobozi bw’imbere mu gihugu bwiyongera, inkunga izakomeza kongera ubushobozi bwo guhangana. Kubera ko ubushobozi buke bw’ibikoresho, ibiciro by’ibikoresho by’ingufu biteganijwe kuzamuka, bigabanye impungenge ku igabanuka ry’ibiciro. Nubwo Amerika ihanganye n’ibibazo byo kugabanyuka kw’ibiciro bya silikoni, kwagura umusaruro w’imbere mu gihugu no gukoresha inkunga isanzwe bizafasha mu gukomeza guhangana ku isi. Isesengura ryerekana ko nubwo inyungu ku bikoresho by’ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y’uburasirazuba bw’Aziya ishobora kugabanuka bitewe n’imisoro, gukoresha ibikoresho by’ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y’uburasirazuba bw’Aziya bizakomeza kunguka.
5. Imbogamizi n'amahirwe ku bigo by'ingufu z'izuba byo mu Bushinwa muri Amerika
Ibigo by’Abashinwa nka Canadian Solar na LONGi birimo kwagura umusaruro wabyo muri Amerika, bishimangira akamaro k’inganda zo mu gihugu kugira ngo zigere ku ntsinzi irambye. Nubwo hari imbogamizi mu kubaka no kubungabunga ibikoresho byo mu gace, gushora imari mu bushobozi bwo gukora uturemangingo ni ingenzi mu iterambere ry’ejo hazaza. Ibigo byibanda ku gushyira mu bikorwa ibikorwa byo mu gihugu no kubaka umubano ukomeye na leta bifite amahirwe menshi yo gutsinda ku isoko rya Amerika no kunguka inyungu irambye. Abashoramari bagomba gukurikirana impinduka mu nkunga, imisoro, n’ingaruka z’ipatanti kugira ngo babyaze umusaruro amahirwe.
6. Politiki z'izuba zo muri Amerika n'icyerekezo cyo gushyiraho
Imishinga ishingiye ku butaka muri Amerika iracyafite inyungu nyinshi. Nubwo inyungu ku nyungu ziri hejuru (hafi 8.5%), iyi mishinga itanga umusaruro ugera kuri 8.38%, ahanini bitewe n'inyungu za ITC, zigabanya imyenda y'imisoro ho 30%, bigabanya ikiguzi cy'ishoramari.
Uko inyungu ku mishinga ikoresha imirasire y'izuba zigabanuka, biteganijwe ko inyungu ku mishinga ikoresha imirasire y'izuba zizamuka. Urugero, kugabanuka kwa 1% ku nyungu bizongera inyungu mu gihe cyose umushinga ukoresha imirasire y'izuba umaze. Nubwo imirasire y'izuba yagize uruhare rurenga 50% mu myaka yashize, iracyari hafi 5% by'ubushobozi bwose bw'ingufu, bigatuma habaho iterambere rinini.
ITC yabaye ingenzi mu iterambere ry’ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y’izuba muri Amerika kuva mu 2005, aho inkunga yatanzwe iri hagati ya 26 na 30%. IRA ya leta ya Biden yongereye inyungu za ITC kugeza mu 2032, itanga inkunga ikomeye mu kwagura imirasire y’izuba mu gihe kizaza.
Biteganijwe ko imiyoboro y'izuba muri Amerika iziyongera cyane mu myaka mike iri imbere. Mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2024, imishinga irenga 100GW y'izuba iri mu nzira, ishyigikira iterambere ry'imiyoboro mu myaka 2-3 iri imbere. Igereranya ryerekana ko Amerika ishobora gushyiraho 43-45GW mu 2024, mu 2025 hategerejwe ukwiyongera ku kigero kirenga 20%.
Modules z'izuba zo muri Amerika zifite inyungu z'ingenzi: zihabwa inkunga ya 7-cent kuri watt muri gahunda ya IRA, ntizishyurwa imisoro imwe na imwe ku tunyangingo two muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba, kandi zishobora kubona bonus ya 10% bya ITC, zikongeraho igiciro cy'inyongera. Ibi bituma modules zo muri Amerika zirushaho guhangana no kwinjiza inyungu ugereranije na modules zuzuye za Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba.
