1. Abashayeli Bokukhula Nezinselele Emakethe Yelanga Yase-US
Kusukela ngo-2013, izindleko zamandla elanga e-US beziphansi kunezamalahle, okwenza kube ngomunye wemithombo yamandla engabizi kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, eminyakeni eyishumi edlule, ukufakwa kwamandla elanga kube nokwehla okubili okuphawulekayo ngenxa yezinguquko kwinqubomgomo ye-Investment Tax Credit (ITC) kanye nemikhawulo yokungenisa izinto ezingxenyeni zaseShayina. Izinhlelo zelanga ezifakwe phansi zingu-60-70% wokufakwa okuphelele e-US. Muva nje, ukufakwa kwezindlu kuye kwehla ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamazinga enzalo kanye nezinguquko ezinqubweni zikahulumeni. Naphezu kwalokhu, amaphrojekthi afakwe phansi ayaqhubeka nokuletha imbuyiselo eqinile, esekelwa yi-ITC. Njengoba amazinga enzalo ehla futhi izinzuzo ze-ITC ziqhubeka, ukufakwa kwamandla elanga kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule.
I-Solar manje inesabelo esiphawulekayo ekuxubeni kwamandla, kodwa isasele ngemuva kwamafutha angaphansi komhlaba. Ukwelulwa kwezinqubomgomo ze-ITC nguhulumeni weBiden kunikeza ukwesekwa kwesikhathi eside kokukhula kwelanga. Njengoba kunezinqolobane eziqinile zamaphrojekthi, imakethe yelanga yase-US kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokukhula okuphindwe kabili eminyakeni emibili ezayo. I-International Energy Agency (IEA) ibikezela ukuthi ngo-2024, amaphrojekthi amakhulu elanga (ngaphezu kuka-1MW) azokwengeza u-36.4GW, okubalwa u-58% wamandla amasha e-US Ngenxa yokukhiqiza okulinganiselwe kwasekhaya (ngaphansi kuka-7GW ekupheleni kuka-2023), izingxenye ezingaphezu kwezingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zezakhi zelanga zithembele ekungenisweni kwamanye amazwe.
2. Umthelela Wezintela Eketangeni Lokunikezwa Kwelanga LaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia
Imithetho yase-US yokulwa nokulahla udoti kanye nemithetho ephikisanayo ezinkampanini zelanga zaseShayina ishintshele ukukhiqiza eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, okwenza lesi sifunda sibe ngumhlinzeki oyinhloko e-US. Imithetho ephezulu kanye nemikhawulo yochungechunge lokunikezwa kwempahla iphoqe izinkampani ukuthi zithuthele umthamo eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. Kodwa-ke, izijeziso ezintsha zingase zinciphise umkhiqizo eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, zikhuphule izindleko futhi zithinte ukunikezwa kwe-US. Esikhathini esifushane, i-US izoqhubeka nokuthembela eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ngamaseli elanga kanye nezingxenye eziphezulu, kuyilapho izixazululo zesikhathi eside cishe zizogxila ekwakheni umthamo wasekhaya ukuze kugwenywe intela.
3. Imboni Yelanga Yase-US kanye Nomthelela We-IRA
Imboni yelanga yase-US izuze kakhulu kuMthetho Wokunciphisa Ukwehla Kwamandla Elanga (i-IRA), owandisa izikhuthazo ze-ITC futhi wethula izibonelelo ezinkulu ezihambisana nokunikezwa ukuze kukhuthazwe ukukhiqizwa kwendawo. Lezi zibonelelo zihlose ukuqinisa uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwamandla elanga lwasekhaya, zinikeze ukwesekwa okukhulu kubakhiqizi bezingxenye nezinto zokwakha. Izindinganiso zabasebenzi kanye nezidingo zokuqukethwe kwasekhaya ziqhubekisela phambili ukukhiqizwa kwendawo, okulindelwe ukuthi kukhule eminyakeni ezayo.
4. Izibonelelo Zelanga zase-US kanye Nomthelela Wazo
Izibonelelo zikahulumeni ze-IRA zivuselele izinkampani zelanga zase-US ezifana ne-First Solar, zazenza zathola inzuzo. Lezi zinqubomgomo azigcini nje ngokuthuthukisa ukusebenza kwezezimali kwesikhathi esifushane kodwa zibalulekile enzuzweni yesikhathi eside. Njengoba amandla endawo anda, izibonelelo zizothuthukisa ukuncintisana. Njengoba ukunikezwa kulinganiselwe, amanani emodyuli kulindeleke ukuthi akhuphuke, okunciphisa ukukhathazeka mayelana nokwehla kwentengo. Ngenkathi i-US ibhekene nezinselelo ngokunikezwa kwe-silicon, ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa kwasekhaya nokusebenzisa izibonelelo ezikhona kuzosiza ukugcina ukuncintisana komhlaba wonke. Ukuhlaziywa kusikisela ukuthi ngenkathi inzuzo yamamojula ahlanganisiwe aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ingase yehle ngenxa yentela, ukusebenzisa amaseli ase-US anomhlangano waseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia kusalokhu kunenzuzo.
5. Izinselele kanye Namathuba Ezinkampani Zelanga ZaseShayina e-US
Izinkampani zaseShayina ezifana neCanadian Solar kanye ne-LONGI zandisa umkhiqizo wazo e-US, zigcizelela ukubaluleka kokukhiqiza kwendawo ukuze kube nempumelelo yesikhathi eside. Naphezu kwezinselele ekwakheni nasekulondolozeni izikhungo zendawo, ukutshala imali emandleni okukhiqiza amaseli kubalulekile ekukhuleni kwesikhathi esizayo. Izinkampani ezigxila ekwakheni indawo kanye nokwakha ubudlelwano obuqinile nohulumeni cishe zizophumelela emakethe yase-US futhi zithole inzuzo eqhubekayo. Abatshalizimali kufanele baqaphe izinguquko ezixhasweni, emananini, kanye nezingozi zelungelo lobunikazi ukuze basebenzise amathuba.
6. Izinqubomgomo zelanga zase-US kanye nombono wokufakwa kwazo
Amaphrojekthi asekelwe phansi e-US ahlala enenzuzo enkulu. Naphezu kwezilinganiso zenzalo eziphezulu (cishe u-8.5%), la maphrojekthi akhiqiza cishe u-8.38%, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yezinzuzo ze-ITC, ezinciphisa izikweletu zentela ngo-30%, zinciphise izindleko zokutshalwa kwezimali.
Njengoba amazinga enzalo ehla, kulindeleke ukuthi imbuyiselo yephrojekthi yelanga ithuthuke. Isibonelo, ukwehla kwe-1% kwezilinganiso zenzalo kuzokhulisa imbuyiselo empilweni yephrojekthi yelanga. Nakuba amandla elanga ebalwe ngaphezu kwama-50% okufakwa okusha eminyakeni yamuva nje, asamelela cishe ama-5% kuphela wamandla kagesi aphelele, okushiya isikhala esikhulu sokukhula.
I-ITC ibilokhu iyisisusa esibalulekile sokukhula kwamandla elanga e-US kusukela ngo-2005, ngezibonelelo ezisukela ku-26-30%. I-IRA kahulumeni kaBiden yandise izinzuzo ze-ITC kuze kube ngu-2032, inikeza ukwesekwa okuqinile kokwandiswa kwamandla elanga esikhathini esizayo.
Kulindeleke ukuthi ukufakwa kwe-solar e-US kukhule ngokushesha eminyakeni embalwa ezayo. Ngekota yokuqala ka-2024, amaphrojekthi e-solar angaphezu kuka-100GW asesendleleni, okusekela ukukhula kokufakwa eminyakeni emi-2-3 ezayo. Izilinganiso zibonisa ukuthi i-US ingafaka i-43-45GW ngo-2024, okulindeleke ukukhula okungaphezu kuka-20% ngo-2025.
Amamojula elanga ase-US anezinzuzo ezibalulekile: athola uxhaso lwama-watt angu-7 ngaphansi kwe-IRA, awakhokhiswa ezinye izintela kumaseli aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, futhi angafanelekela ibhonasi eyengeziwe ye-ITC engu-10%, okwengeza iphrimiyamu. Lokhu kwenza amamojula ase-US ancintisane kakhulu futhi abe nenzuzo uma kuqhathaniswa namamojula aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ahlanganiswe ngokugcwele.
