1. Zvinokonzera Kukura uye Matambudziko muMusika weSolar muUS
Kubva mugore ra2013, mutengo wesimba rezuva muUS wave wakaderera pane wemarasha, zvichiita kuti ive imwe yesimba rinodhura zvishoma. Zvisinei, mumakore gumi apfuura, kuiswa kwesimba rezuva kwakasangana nekudzikira kukuru kaviri nekuda kwekuchinja kwemutemo weInvestment Tax Credit (ITC) uye zvirambidzo zvekupinza zvinhu muChina. Masisitimu ezuva akaiswa pasi anomiririra 60-70% yekuisa kwese muUS. Munguva pfupi yapfuura, kuiswa kwesimba rekugara kwakadzikira nekuda kwekuwedzera kwemitengo yemubereko uye shanduko mumitemo yenyika. Pasinei neizvi, mapurojekiti akaiswa pasi anoramba achiunza purofiti yakasimba, achitsigirwa neITC. Sezvo mitengo yemubereko ichidzikira uye mabhenefiti eITC achiramba aripo, kuiswa kwesimba rezuva kunotarisirwa kukura.
Solar ikozvino ine chikamu chakakosha mukusanganiswa kwesimba, asi ichiri kusaririra kumashure kwemafuta efossil. Kuwedzera kwemitemo yeITC nehutungamiriri hwaBiden kunopa rutsigiro rwenguva refu rwekukura kwezuva. Nekuchengetedza kwakasimba kwemapurojekiti, musika wezuva wekuUS unotarisirwa kuramba uchikura kaviri mumakore maviri anotevera. International Energy Agency (IEA) inofanotaura kuti muna 2024, mapurojekiti makuru ezuva (anopfuura 1MW) achawedzera 36.4GW, zvichiita 58% yesimba idzva muUS Nekuda kwekushomeka kwekugadzirwa kwemagetsi emuno (pasi pe7GW pakupera kwa2023), zvinopfuura zvikamu zviviri muzvitatu zvezvikamu zvezuva zvinoshandisa zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika.
2. Kukanganiswa kwemitero paChain yeKupa Simba reSolar muSoutheast Asia
Mitero yeUS yekurambidza kurasa marara uye mitero yekudzivirira makambani ezuva ekuChina yakachinja kugadzirwa kwayo kuenda kuSoutheast Asia, zvichiita kuti dunhu iri rive mutengesi mukuru kuUS. Mitero yepamusoro uye zvirambidzo zvekutengesa zvinhu zvakamanikidza makambani kutamisa kugona kwavo kuenda kuSoutheast Asia. Zvisinei, zvirango zvitsva zvinogona kudzikamisa kugadzirwa muSoutheast Asia, zvichikwidza mitengo uye zvichikanganisa kuwanikwa kwemagetsi muUS. Munguva pfupi, US icharamba ichivimba neSoutheast Asia kuti iwane maseru ezuva nezvikamu zvepamusoro, nepo mhinduro dzenguva refu dzingangotarisa pakuvaka kugona kwemuno kudzivirira mitero.
3. Indasitiri yezuva yeUS uye Mhedzisiro yeIRA
Indasitiri yezuva yemuUS yakabatsirwa zvikuru neInflation Reduction Act (IRA), iyo yakawedzera zvinokurudzira zveITC uye yakaunza rubatsiro rukuru rwekupa zvinhu kuti ikurudzire kugadzirwa kwemuno. Rubatsiro urwu rwakanangana nekusimbisa cheni yekupa zvinhu zvezuva yemuno, zvichipa rutsigiro rwakakura kune vagadziri vezvikamu nezvinhu. Mitemo yevashandi nezvinodiwa zvemuno zvinowedzera kukurudzira kugadzirwa kwemuno, tsika inotarisirwa kuwedzera mumakore anotevera.
4. Rubatsiro rwezuva rweUS uye Mhedzisiro Yarwo
Rubatsiro rwakawanda rweIRA rwakamutsiridza makambani ezuva ekuUS akaita seFirst Solar, zvichiita kuti awane purofiti. Mitemo iyi haingogadzirisi mashandiro emari kwenguva pfupi chete asi yakakosha pakuwana purofiti kwenguva refu. Sezvo kugona kwemuno kuchikwira, rubatsiro ruchawedzera kukwikwidzana. Nekuwanikwa kushoma, mitengo yemamodule inotarisirwa kukwira, zvichideredza kunetseka nezvekudzikira kwemitengo. Kunyange hazvo US ichitarisana nematambudziko nekupa silicon, kuwedzera kugadzirwa kwemuno uye kushandisa rubatsiro ruripo zvichabatsira kuchengetedza kukwikwidzana kwepasi rose. Ongororo inoratidza kuti nepo purofiti yemamodule akabatanidzwa ekuSoutheast Asia inogona kudzikira nekuda kwemitero, kushandisa ma cell eUS neSoutheast Asian assembly kuchiri purofiti.
5. Matambudziko nemikana yemakambani ezuva ekuChina muUS
Makambani ekuChina akadai seCanadian Solar neLONGI ari kuwedzera kugadzirwa kwawo muUS, zvichiratidza kukosha kwekugadzirwa kwemuno kuti kubudirire kwenguva refu. Pasinei nematambudziko mukuvaka nekugadzirisa zvivakwa zvemuno, kuisa mari mukugadzira maseru kwakakosha kuti kukura kweramangwana kukure. Makambani anotarisa pakugadzira maseru uye kuvaka hukama hwakasimba nehurumende ane mukana wekubudirira mumusika weUS uye kuwana purofiti inoenderera mberi. Vanoisa mari vanofanira kutarisa shanduko murubatsiro, mitero, uye njodzi dzepatenti kuti vashandise mikana.
6. Mitemo yezuva yeUS uye Maonero Ekuisa
Mapurojekiti akagadzirwa pasi muUS achiri purofiti yakakura. Pasinei nemitengo yemubereko yakakwira (inenge 8.5%), mapurojekiti aya anoburitsa angangoita 8.38%, zvakanyanya nekuda kwerubatsiro rweITC, iyo inoderedza zvikwereti zvemitero ne30%, zvichideredza mari yekudyara.
Sezvo mitengo yemubereko ichidzikira, mari inodzoka kubva kumapurojekiti ezuva inotarisirwa kuwedzera. Semuenzaniso, kudzikira kwemitengo yemubereko ne1% kuchawedzera mari inodzoka kubva kumapurojekiti ezuva. Kunyange hazvo simba rezuva rave richipfuura 50% yenzvimbo itsva dzakaiswa mumakore achangopfuura, richiri kungomirira 5% chete yesimba rese, zvichisiya nzvimbo yakakura yekukura.
ITC yave iri chinhu chikuru chinoita kuti US ikure kubva mugore ra2005, nerubatsiro rwunobva pa26-30%. IRA yehurumende yaBiden yakawedzera mabhenefiti eITC kusvika mugore ra2032, ichipa rutsigiro rwakasimba rwekuwedzera simba rezuva mune ramangwana.
Kuisa magetsi ezuva muUS kunotarisirwa kukura nekukurumidza mumakore mashoma anotevera. Panosvika kota yekutanga ya2024, mapurojekiti ezuva anopfuura 100GW ari kufambira mberi, zvichitsigira kukura kwekuisa kwemakore maviri kusvika matatu anotevera. Zvinofungidzirwa zvinoratidza kuti US inogona kuisa magetsi e43-45GW muna 2024, nekukura kweanopfuura 20% kunotarisirwa muna 2025.
Ma solar modules ekuUS ane zvakanakira zvikuru: anowana 7-cent per watt subsidy pasi peIRA, haabhadharwi nemimwe mitero paSoutheast Asian cells, uye anogona kukodzera bhonasi ye10% ITC, zvichiwedzera premium. Izvi zvinoita kuti ma US modules ave nemakwikwi uye awane purofiti zvichienzaniswa nema Southeast Asian modules akabatanidzwa zvizere.
